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Women’s Strawweights

Rose Namajunas (5-3) vs. Michelle Waterson (14-4)

THE MATCHUP: What a fantastic fight in the UFC’s thrilling women’s strawweight division. Namajunas’ record is not glamorous, but she is a talented and very young fighter who has faced top competition since the start of her career. Like Ryan Bader at light heavyweight, “Thug Rose” has been forced to do most of her developing on the big stage, and as such, her failures stick out in the mind’s eye. Nonetheless, she continues to improve with every fight.

The first stage of Namajunas’ development had everything to do with control. Namajunas fell short in her title fight with Carla Esparza because she fought like the energetic fireplug she is. She bedazzled Esparza with flying kicks and wild punches, boldly engaging in back-and-forth scrambles on the ground. Though she had her moments, this approach exhausted her and left her confidence shaken. Esparza controlled her, roughed her up and got the tap. Since then, Namajunas has sharpened up her striking, focusing on the fundamentals of feinting, efficient punching and footwork. Against Paige VanZant, Namajunas displayed her mental growth, staying consistent and controlled even after VanZant escaped or survived her first three submission attempts. Namajunas also displayed clean boxing, outlanding VanZant by a margin of 53 strikes. Still, Namajunas flagged when Karolina Kowalkiewicz applied heavy pressure in her most recent fight, showing she still has some growing to do in the realm of mental endurance.

Waterson has the kicking game to trouble the boxing-based Namajunas. A longtime practitioner of American freestyle karate, Waterson throws kicks the way most fighters throw combination punches, deftly attacking all targets with both legs. She is adept at throwing kicks on the retreat, and though she is not a particularly technical boxer, the threat of her legs allows her to surprise wary opponents with quick punches. On the ground, “The Karate Hottie” is an energetic scrambler and an aggressive submission grappler. Waterson is willing to throw herself into risky positions if it means nabbing an arm or neck. By contrast, Namajunas has tempered her own grappling, building a style predicated on positional control and smooth movement.

At times, Waterson can be fairly inactive in the clinch and allows herself to be flattened up against the fence, much like another Jackson-Wink fighter: Frank Mir. One of her typical counters to this kind of position is the head-and-arm throw, a risky technique all too common in the gradually developing world of women’s MMA. Waterson also utilizes granby rolls and sacrifice throws to counter her opponents’ wrestling, dynamic techniques that either work well or backfire spectacularly. Given Namajunas’ size, strength and ever-improving clinch wrestling, Waterson’s clinch approach is likely to work against her in this fight.

THE ODDS: Namajunas (-150), Waterson (+120)

THE PICK: Both Namajunas and Waterson are to some extent frontrunners. They excel when they have the fight in their grasp and struggle when the opponent puts up spirited resistance. In a battle of wills, however, Namajunas’ wrestling and grappling technique should allow her to control the bout. Waterson is wily and aggressive on the ground, and she is absolutely good enough to catch Namajunas sleeping. That style of grappling may have allowed Waterson to finish VanZant more quickly than Namajunas did, but it will also give the more calculated grappler opportunities to counter and control her on the floor. This one should be a hard-fought, scrappy affair, but Namajunas has a few too many advantages -- in size, strength and grappling technique -- for Waterson to be favored here. Namajunas by third-round submission is the pick.

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