Featherweights
Yair Rodriguez (11-2, 1 N/C) vs. Jeremy Stephens (28-16, 1 N/C)
Odds: Rodriguez (-110), Stephens (-110)
Let's try this again. A slated bout between Rodriguez and Stephens looked like guaranteed fireworks as a headliner in Mexico City a few weeks ago, but instead the fight ended in just 15 seconds after Rodriguez accidentally poked Stephens's eye. But thankfully it's been rebooked for this Boston card that badly needed a co-main, and this fight looks just as good on paper the second time around. Rodriguez's career has stalled out a bit in recent years -- often due to circumstances outside of his control -- but it's worth appreciating just how far he's come to become the face of the UFC's Mexican expansion. "El Pantera" didn't even particularly stand out as the best prospect on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America,” but Rodriguez eventually won both fans and fights with a dizzying array of flashy strikes and aggressive grappling. Rodriguez had a breakout 2016, scoring a memorable switch kick knockout of Andre Fili and winning an all-action headlining bout against Alex Caceres, and that set up 2017 to be the year for Rodriguez to break into contender status. But a win over the husk of B.J. Penn didn't accomplish much, and it definitely didn't prepare Rodriguez to face Frankie Edgar in his next bout, as Edgar took Rodriguez down and mauled him until the fight was stopped between rounds. Since then, it's been an odd few years that have mostly seen Rodriguez feud with UFC management; after turning down some fights, the promotion made a big show of cutting Rodriguez before the two sides mended fences and brought Rodriguez back into the UFC fold. That led to Rodriguez making a short-notice return to headline a November bout against Chan Sung Jung, which in turn served as a reminder of why everyone got excited about Rodriguez in the first place; the bout itself was fun enough, but with Rodriguez set to lose the bout on the scorecards, he uncorked a backwards elbow to knock out a lunging Jung in the last second of the fight, scoring one of the most impressive finishes in UFC history. That basically sums up Rodriguez's approach; there's not a ton of connective tissue, but he's creative enough to author some of the most memorable violence in the sport. And after much too long of a wait, he heads back to the canvas here to take on a stiff test in Stephens.
Stephens has split his 31 UFC fights exactly down the middle , as he's had a career that's continually cycled itself between ups and downs. Stephens first carved out a niche as both a fan and promotional favorite during his days as a lightweight brawler, but after hitting the point of diminishing returns at 155, Stephens found himself with a new life down at featherweight. Stephens's horsepower transferred in impressive fashion, but after a few one-sided wins, Stephens once again hit a plateau; wins over Dennis Bermudez and Renan Barao were solid, but they came along a stretch where Stephens lost five of seven. On the plus side, all of those fights came against strong competition, and it was the last loss of the bunch against Renato Carniero that forced Stephens to regroup. “Moicano” essentially made his name off that bout, adopting a mobile striking style that forced Stephens to chase him, making the veteran look unprepared as he constantly moved forward and hit nothing but air. But Stephens came out for his next fight against Gilbert Melendez using a much smarter style, and that led "Lil' Heathen" to a three-fight winning streak that made himself a contender once again. Of course, Stephens' career lately has seen him hit yet another wall; his fight against Jose Aldo saw him lose his cool and wind up on the losing end of a brawl, while Zabit Magomedsharipov was just too much of a whirlwind for Stephens to keep up. But if his past is any sort of prologue, that means he's due for yet another resurgence that starts here with Rodriguez, doesn't it?
As with most Rodriguez fights now that he's facing stronger competition, this is going to depend on the Mexican's ability to find a finish. A few years ago, this would've been a much easier fight to call for Rodriguez; most of Stephens's career has been marked by his willingness to spark a brawl and hunt for the finish, and in that type of exchange, Rodriguez would likely throw something that would take Stephens's head off. But now that Stephens is a more patient fighter, he has a solid chance here; if he picks his spots to pressure Rodriguez while staying mindful of his defense, he can easily get the better of things and win a fun decision. And this time around, this fight is slated for three rounds instead of five, which further favors Stephens given how dependent Rodriguez is on finding one big moment. Frankly, Stephens is probably the smarter pick, but Rodriguez's ability to create something out of nothing is too hard to ignore, and even across 15 minutes instead of 25, Stephens figures to give Rodriguez some opportunities; the Aldo fight showed that Stephens hasn't entirely gotten the wildness out of his system, and tempers figure to be flaring after how the first fight went down. Like last time, the pick is Rodriguez via third-round knockout.
Continue Reading » Hardy vs. Sosoli