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Heavyweights

Don’Tale Mayes (9-5, 2-3 UFC) vs. Andrei Arlovski (34-21, 23-15 UFC)

ODDS: Mayes (-125), Arlovski (+105)

The last year has seen a lot of the UFC’s oldest and longest-tenured fighters either retire or wash out of the promotion, yet Arlovski keeps chugging along as part of a surprisingly long late-career tail. Now over 17 years removed from his stint as heavyweight champion, Arlovski is also a decade out from what most figured was a career-ending string of losses between 2009 and 2011, which saw his chin seemingly crack as he kept quickly getting knocked out. However, “The Pit Bull” racked up enough wins at the regional level to earn a return trip to the UFC in 2014, and what figured to be a victory lap instead turned into a legitimate run towards title contention, finally ending with a one-sided loss to Stipe Miocic in 2016. That, in turn, led to yet another rough stretch that figured to be the end of Arlovski, but once he washed out of the most relevant tiers of the UFC’s heavyweight division, he turned out to have a high floor as a solidly athletic fighter—even in his 40s—with enough veteran craft to avoid getting knocked out and eke out decision wins. Arlovski is still clearly outgunned against the fastest athletes in the division, as Marcos Rogerio de Lima ran the former champ over in October and Tom Aspinall did much the same early in 2021. Those are Arlovski’s only losses in an eight-fight stretch that has seen him outpoint and outwork a vast swath of his younger competition. Now 44 years old, Arlovski takes on Mayes, who remains in the bucket of more pedestrian heavyweights but has both the athletic gifts and relative youth to become something greater. “Lord Kong” is 6-foot-6 and surprisingly light on his feet for a man his size, though that may be both a blessing and a curse. Much of Mayes’ striking revolves around single shots that are impressively flashy but not particularly functional. Mayes has also done well to add some wrestling to his repertoire, leading to a game that can be disjointed but often effective, mostly thanks to his physical gifts. Mayes still makes some bad decisions in the cage, but he has grown increasingly comfortable in his fights and alleviated a lot of his earlier cardio concerns as a result. The hope is that, as a 31-year-old heavyweight, Mayes still has another decade or so where he can keep finding enough wins to skate by until everything suddenly clicks with experience. The type of inefficient aimlessness that Mayes brings to the table makes him the type of opponent that Arlovski tends to beat at this point in his career. Even so, there are some worries on the margins that could turn this against the longtime vet, mostly centered around Mayes’ sheer size causing some issues for Arlovski to try and work his way into the fight. Arlovski still earns the benefit of the doubt, even if it may be for a razor-thin victory. The pick is Arlovski via decision.

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