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Women’s Bantamweights

#12 WBW | Karol Rosa (15-3, 4-0 UFC) vs. #9 WBW | Sara McMann (12-6, 6-6 UFC)

ODDS: Rosa (-220), McMann (+180)

Rosa has been one of the more pleasant surprises during her time on the UFC roster. She did not seem to be a particularly interesting prospect upon her 2019 UFC debut, but her and fellow newcomer Lara Procopio threw down for a ridiculously high-paced bout that earned Rosa both the win and some attention. In her three fights since, Rosa has shown an impressive combination of adaptability and pace. Depending on the opponent, she has been able to leverage either her striking or her takedowns, providing constant pressure that overwhelms her opponents in the end. If there is one worry about Rosa’s potential as a future contender, it is that she does not appear to be a particularly strong athlete. She was able to close that athletic gap with her wrestling against Joselyne Edwards early last year, but she may find herself without a clear path to victory against better athletes that can match her on skill. Enter McMann, who is as baffling a fighter as ever. An Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling back in 2004, McMann has obviously been able to lean on that background—along with some solid submission skills—in the best performances of her career. Despite having what figures to be that ace in the hole, things can go shockingly south for McMann in wrestling and grappling exchanges. Her last fight—a January 2021 loss to Julianna Pena—followed the same script as many of McMann’s fights. McMann built an early lead with her wrestling and looked technically sound throughout, but Pena was able to get the better of one late exchange and suddenly get the ball rolling towards a submission victory. At this point, there is always the chance that McMann can put on a consistent 15-minute performance, but she is about as hard to trust as any fighter on the roster. That carries into this fight, where McMann should have all the advantages and be able to outwrestle Rosa for 15 minutes on paper. However, with Rosa’s dogged personality, it is hard to go against the Brazilian finding some moment to break the fight open and turn things clearly in her favor. At a certain point, you have to side with the winning fighter. The pick is Rosa via decision.

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