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Flyweights

Jussier Formiga (23-5) vs. Joseph Benavidez (27-5)

ODDS: Benavidez (-175), Formiga (+155)

It appears as though the UFC plans to stay in the flyweight business, as this fight gets a deserved co-main event slot and pits the best two fighters in the division outside of Henry Cejudo against each other. That assumes Cejudo continues to compete at 125 pounds. For most of the UFC flyweight division’s existence, Benavidez has firmly been in the second-place spot. Demetrious Johnson first became flyweight champion with a win over Benavidez, and after losing a rematch in quick and brutal fashion, he just went about his business and knocked off everyone he faced for the next three years. A late 2016 win over Cejudo, which was controversially narrow, may have wound up being the last truly great performance of Benavidez’s career. A torn ACL shortly thereafter kept him out for all of 2017, and a loss to Sergio Pettis in his return bout was a sign that the pack had finally started to catch up to him. Since then, Benavidez has shaken off the rust and proven that he still belongs with the elite of the division. Running over Alex Perez was a huge reminder, but Benavidez also looked strong in a back-and-forth decision win over Dustin Ortiz in January. His best days are behind him, but having one of the best resumes in the sport -- the only men to beat Benavidez are Johnson, Pettis and Dominick Cruz -- and the aforementioned win over Cejudo has kept Benavidez in the catbird seat for a title shot. However, a fellow perennial contender in Formiga wants to secure his first championship opportunity before flyweight closes for good.

Formiga was one of the consensus best flyweights in the world when the UFC started to put its division together, and he has proven as much over the ensuing seven years. He has lost just four times during his UFC tenure, and each of those fights earned his opponent a title shot at Johnson. Thanks to poor timing, that has always left Formiga on the outside looking in, and to his credit, he still seems to be improving 14 years into his MMA career. While undeniably talented, Formiga is not an athlete, and that has always left him with a clear ceiling. All of his losses have come to much stronger fighters who, with the possible exception of John Dodson, have managed to match Formiga in the grappling department. That grappling game -- particularly his ability to take the back -- has always been Formiga’s bread and butter, but he has slowly developed an effective, if not particularly flashy, striking game and apparently refined his ground skills even further. His most recent fight against Deiveson Figueiredo was a perfect example of the type of matchup that has given Formiga fits in the past, but this time around, he managed to win a grappling-heavy affair with a bigger, stronger athlete and earn a decision. Formiga seems to be peaking later into his career, and victory over Benavidez could earn him that elusive title shot.

This is actually a rematch of a 2013 fight that earned Benavidez his second title opportunity against Johnson. He knocked out Formiga a little more than three minutes into the bout. Six years later, the sequel should provide an interesting contrast. Formiga is now much better on the feet, and Benavidez no longer has anywhere near the level of athletic explosiveness that led his obliteration of the Brazilian the first time around. Benavidez still has enough craft to win this fight if it takes place purely on the feet, but Formiga should look to wrestle. Those exchanges should be relatively even, but with Formiga coming off a mostly controlling performance against a tank like Figueiredo and Benavidez having a back-and-forth battle with Ortiz, it is difficult not to see the former Shooto Americas champion as the superior grappler at this stage of their careers. It should be a close, fun fight, but it looks like the tail end of Formiga’s career is holding up just a tad bit better than that of Benavidez. The pick is Formiga via decision.

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