Middleweights
David Branch (22-5) vs. Jack Hermansson (18-4)ODDS: Hermansson (-125), Branch (+105)
This is an odd choice for a co-main event, if only because the ostensible A-side in Branch does not currently have momentum. In retrospect, it looks like the UFC is paying for everything but Branch’s best years. After washing out of the promotion in 2011, Branch went on an undefeated run as a double champion in the World Series of Fighting, fleshing out a defensively sound but effective striking game around his always-strong grappling. After making his way back to the Octagon, there was some hope that Branch could make himself an immediate contender, but that never really came to fruition. He suffered a definitive loss to Luke Rockhold, and after rebounding with a surprising knockout win over Thiago Santos, Branch went and had the same thing done to him, as Jared Cannonier stepped in as a late replacement and announced himself with a knockout win over the New Yorker. Branch is still a good, well-rounded fighter, but the ceiling is clear at this point. As such, he settles firmly into the gatekeeper role against Hermansson.
Maybe the reason for this high slot is that the UFC sees something in Hermansson as a potential Swedish star, but despite some recent improvements, he also feels like a fighter who has reached a clear ceiling. Hermansson became one of the best middleweights in Europe behind an awkward-but-effective striking game, but getting submitted in one-sided fashion by Cezar Ferreira in his second UFC bout suggested that he would wind up slotted as a fun undercard fighter whenever the Octagon crossed the pond. However, Hermansson suddenly reinvented himself as a vicious ground-and-pound specialist. At his best, he can get his opponents out of there in impressively fast fashion -- Alex Nicholson, Bradley Scott and Gerald Meerschaert were all dispatched within a round -- but it was just a year and a half ago that Hermansson lost a one-sided fight to Santos, so it is not as if the Swede is riding some huge wave of momentum. For whatever reason, the UFC’s giving him a big spot here, so perhaps he can take advantage of it.
Not only is this an uninspiring co-headliner, but it does not even feel like that hard of a fight to call. Hermansson’s herky-jerky striking should not be able to catch the cautious Branch, and the Swede’s recent pivot towards achieving top control plays right into the strongest parts of Branch’s game. It may take a while for either Branch to press those advantages or for Hermansson to feel comfortable enough to try and strike, but once that happens, Branch should be able to take this over without much trouble. The pick is Branch via second-round submission.
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