Preview: UFC on ESPN 18 Main Card

Light Heavyweights

#6 LHW | Anthony Smith (33-16, 8-6 UFC) vs. NR | Devin Clark (12-4, 6-4 UFC)

ODDS: Smith (-140), Clark (+120)

Cut shortly after the Strikeforce acquisition, Smith’s charge back to the UFC and up the middleweight ladder was a nice story, as “Lionheart” quickly developed a reputation for comeback wins befitting of his nickname. Then a move up to light heavyweight in 2018 proved shockingly successful. Smith made his divisional debut against Rashad Evans in June, and by October, he had already racked up three wins to become a top contender at 205 pounds. Smith’s title shot against Jon Jones was nothing much—he accomplished little but survived all five rounds—but a subsequent win over Alexander Gustafsson made it appear that the former journeyman would remain ensconced in the light heavyweight title scene. After taking the rest of 2019 off for a much-needed break, this year has seen his situation go firmly south. Smith made his post-pandemic return against Glover Teixeira, but early success against the Brazilian quickly turned sour. Teixeira was eventually able to take down Smith at will and administer a brutal beating. Smith refused to quit, even as he was handing his teeth to his cornermen in between rounds. Smith’s last bout, a one-sided loss to Aleksandar Rakic, did not quite turn that grim, but it was still a performance that saw him fall into a hole early and try to trigger a comeback that never materialized. Smith is sliding back down the light heavyweight ladder just trying to find his floor, and that could come here. Clark is a physical specimen who never quite developed as a prospect. He is a solid wrestler, but things often tend to go sideways if Clark commits to anything outside of a boring grind. Bouts against Alex Nicholson, Jan Blachowicz and the aforementioned Rakic all proved that Clark could be his own worst enemy. The “Brown Bear” was doing well in all three but became overaggressive in hunting for a finish and got finished himself each time. His June win over Alonzo Menifield was a bright spot. Menifield only had one round of offense in him, but Clark at least showed a newfound ability to absorb damage. If Clark succeeds against Smith, it will probably come through three rounds of unmemorable wrestling. There is certainly a universe where Clark gets an uninspiring win, but his lack of defense and any sort of finishing risk mean that Smith should probably find a comeback at some point. If not, things are truly dire. Smith is offensively potent enough and Clark is unreliable enough that the favorite likely will not even need a comeback. The pick is Smith via first-round knockout.

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