Lightweights
Scott Holtzman (14-4 | 7-4 UFC) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (17-1, 1 N/C | 0-1 UFC)Odds: Gamrot (-230), Holtzman (+190)
Well, Gamrot's UFC debut didn't go as planned. A two-division champion in KSW, he figured to make an immediate impact inside of the Octagon; while there was some question about his championship upside, Gamrot looked well-rounded enough to immediately settle in as one of the top 20 or so lightweights in the UFC's ranks. But he just never got things rolling against fellow newcomer Guram Kutateladze this past October. Gamrot's never been much of a finisher, and once Kutateladze proved he was able to hold his own on the feet, Gamrot's wrestling game didn't lead much of anywhere, leading to a flat performance in a narrow decision loss. On the plus side, Kutateladze's performance suggested the loss will look much better with time, but for now Gamrot really could use a win to salvage some of his hype. He doesn't get much of a step back, as Holtzman's proven to be a tough out over the course of his UFC career. A former hockey player, Holtzman came to the sport late, so while he doesn't have the natural instincts or technical depth of a longtime prospect, he's a powerful athlete who can hold his own just about anywhere. His August loss to Beneil Dariush probably closed the door to any sort of late-career run towards title contention, but he's in a solid position to rebound here. This figures to be a close fight given both men's combination of well-rounded skills and lack of finishing ability, but Holtzman's subpar takedown defense looks to be what separates the two on paper; if Gamrot can't successfully take this to the mat as needed, that raises a whole other pile of concerns. The pick is Gamrot via decision.
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