Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Hunt vs. Mir’

Connor RuebuschMar 17, 2016

Welterweights
Neil Magny (17-4) vs Hector Lombard (34-4-1)

THE MATCHUP: It has been more than a year since Lombard was suspended following a positive test for desoxymethyltestosterone. In the interim, Magny has compiled a 4-1 record against mostly top-flight opposition and continues to show improvements in nearly every aspect of his game. We could speculate for days on end how much of Lombard’s success was based on performance enhancers, but a year-long layoff for any reason is not the ideal introduction to a fight with Magny.

Circumstances aside, however, Lombard may well pose a serious threat to Magny. Ring rust and commission procedures may not favor him here, but the style matchup does -- to an extent. For one, Lombard is extremely explosive and powerful. Though shorter, his style is not unlike that of Hyun Gyu Lim, who stunned Magny several times when the two fought at a UFC Fight Night event in the Philippines. He is also near immovable in the clinch, which is probably Magny’s best range on the feet. No one has ever casually disrespected the wrestling of Jake Shields the way Lombard did at UFC 171 -- not Georges St. Pierre, not Dan Henderson, not Demian Maia and not Tyron Woodley. Lombard was utterly dominant whenever he and Shields entered a clinch, and that could pose problems for Magny.

Despite his height and length, Magny is not much of an out-fighter. He will use his long arms to land shots from range, of course, but his striking arsenal is not fully developed and he lacks the discipline to maintain and control distance the way better out-fighters like Nate Diaz and Alexander Gustafsson do. He is vulnerable to winging, overhand punches and allows himself to be backed into the fence by aggressive opponents.

Fortunately for Magny, he has a few aces up his sleeve. Lombard may have a stellar clinch game, but Magny is more physically imposing than Shields. Magny is also a high-volume fighter with a bottomless gas tank, while Lombard slows down noticeably in the second and third rounds of nearly every fight; and while Magny has been pushed into the fence in the past, Lombard has never displayed particularly cunning footwork. He moves in straight lines, which should give Magny a chance to escape.

THE ODDS: Magny (140), Lombard (+120)

THE PICK: Like all well-matched fights, there are a lot of factors to consider here. Does Lombard’s clinch game cancel out Magny’s? Can Magny put Lombard on his back? Will Lombard’s speed and power give him the edge in striking exchanges or will those traits be less pronounced following his layoff? In the end, Magny should be just a little bit sharper and a little bit more determined. Whenever he fails to get the early finish, Lombard tends to find himself bogged down in a competitive fight, while Magny is the type of fighter who grows stronger and stronger with each passing minute. Expect Magny to survive a tough first round and take a unanimous decision.

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