Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. Thatch’

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Cole Miller (21-8, 10-6 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (11-3, 7-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: After a four-fight winning streak as one of the UFC’s designated short-notice action fighters in the cowboy-hatted Donald Cerrone mold, young Holloway gets a fight that could launch him up the ladder as a legitimate contender in the featherweight division. His opponent will be grizzled veteran Miller, who has been out for more than a year but is riding a two-fight winning streak of his own.

Miller was once a fairly one-dimensional grappler, but he has added an increasingly crisp striking game to his repertoire over the years. Mostly a boxer, Miller works behind a rangy jab that is made more effective by his 6-foot-1 height and long reach. He follows that jab with a surprisingly sharp right hand, and he throws the 1-2 early and often, though he could stand to use his excellent left hook a little more. While neither a power puncher nor a fighter blessed with terrifically fast hands, Miller takes good angles, has a good understanding of distance and works at a quick pace. Beyond punching range, Miller likes the occasional low kick and front kicks up the middle, mostly targeted at the head. He is well below average as a wrestler but makes up for it with a strong clinch and venomous guard. Upon hitting the mat, he immediately grabs overhooks or wrist control and begins to chain submission attempts and sweeps. He is even more dangerous in transition and wastes no time in advancing to a dominant position and locking in a submission.

Holloway was already a good striker when he entered the UFC at the tender age of 20, and he has further sharpened his quick-paced, pressuring style into one of the division’s very best. He can operate from either stance but seems to have settled more on southpaw in his last several outings. His arsenal is diverse and dangerous: Holloway whirls slick three- to five-punch combinations, sharp kicks at all levels and the occasional spinning kick to keep his opponent on his toes. He mixes up his punches to the head and body and can land both moving forward and on the counter. While he remains more of an attrition-based knockout artist than a one-punch killer, his fundamentals are good enough that every cross and liver shot holds enough power to end things quickly. A relatively traditional sprawl-and-brawler, Holloway eschews takedowns of his own but is almost impossible to plant on his back. If the fight does go to the ground, he is perfectly competent, though he never chooses to do so.

BETTING ODDS: Holloway (-350), Miller (+290)

THE PICK: Those odds seem approximately correct given that the fight is unlikely to end up on the ground. Miller’s greatest assets are his pace and his length, and Holloway can nearly match him in the reach department while drastically exceeding his preferred pace. The Hawaiian is also a much more diverse and technically sound striker. While it will likely take Holloway a round to find his timing and range, Miller will struggle once he turns up the volume. Holloway by knockout late in the second round is the pick.

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