Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Dillashaw vs. Cruz’

Lightweights

Anthony Pettis (18-3) vs Eddie Alvarez (26-4)

THE MATCHUP: Two paragons of unmet expectations meet in this clash of lightweight contenders. It has been 10 months since Pettis was last seen in the Octagon. On that occasion, he was savagely beaten by Rafael dos Anjos for five rounds. Dos Anjos is now rightly considered a top pound-for-pound fighter, having successfully defended the championship belt he violently wrested from Pettis, but at the time, “Showtime” was roundly considered the best thing going at 155 pounds.

Pettis has always been a phenomenally athletic fighter. In his World Extreme Cagefighting days, he represented a familiar type of kickboxer, the “check-this-out” kind of fighter who did things because they were cool, not necessarily because they were effective. Unlike most, Pettis was talented enough to make it work, chopping down lesser fighters with wild spinning kicks and flying techniques. Pettis has since developed his fundamentals to the point that his flaws were largely forgotten. However, as dos Anjos succinctly reminded us, Pettis is still far from a perfect fighter. Most troubling is the Milwaukee native’s reaction to pressure. He is too easily backed into the fence, where his kicker’s stance collapses and he is forced to brawl his way back into open space.

Fortunately for Pettis, Alvarez is not likely to match dos Anjos, or even Gilbert Melendez, for sheer pressure. Alvarez too has had something of a long layoff since his last UFC appearance, a contested decision win over the aforementioned Melendez in June. Alvarez, a former Bellator champion, has also fallen short of the lofty expectations placed upon him with his move to the UFC. Alvarez is an all-rounder on the feet. He likes to box and pot-shot from range, but he is never averse to mixing it up in the pocket, and he will wrestle and clinch fight when the mood takes him. Alvarez can be hurt more easily than most. In fact, he seems to wobble in nearly every fight, including the 26 he has won. Nonetheless, his recovery is excellent. Once his bell has been rung, he tends to sharpen up his technique, making sure to keep the right distance and pick his shots carefully.

Both Alvarez and Pettis are dangerous grapplers. Pettis has a truly dangerous guard. Though he often plays a patient, trapping game off of his back, he is always a split second away from a lightning-fast armbar, triangle or omoplata attempt. Alvarez has old-school “wrestler’s jiu-jitsu” by comparison, but his back takes are reliably effective, and he has the rear-naked choke to match.

THE ODDS: Pettis (-345), Alvarez (+285)

THE PICK: The dos Anjos fight may have been a poignant reminder of Pettis’ flaws, but the severity of that beating does not necessarily portend a future of hard losses for “Showtime.” Not only is Alvarez less well-rounded than Dos Anjos, but he also fits well with Pettis’ style. Given the choice, Alvarez likes to operate in the range at which Pettis is most dangerous, eyeing his openings right on the fringes of punching range, a very short step away from kicking range. Without the constant pressure or the serious takedown threat, Pettis will be able to do what he does best. “Showtime” wins by unanimous decision.

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