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Middleweights

Derek Brunson (14-3) vs Roan Carneiro (20-9)

THE MATCHUP: What kind of fighter is Brunson? Since entering the UFC in 2012, he has amassed five wins of two very different types. There are the fairly tedious, control-based decisions over Brian Houston and Lorenz Larkin, and then there are the three first-round finishes, the two most recent of which occurred against some notoriously durable opponents. In a middleweight division largely divided into clear groups -- the powerless kickboxers, the strongman submission grapplers and the brawlers -- Brunson’s well-roundedness marks him out from the crowd.

Like many Jackson-Wink MMA fighters, Brunson is not a pretty striker. His lack of boxing fundamentals means he struggles to throw in combination and overextends himself when closing the distance. Brunson does take full advantage of Greg Jackson’s “athleticism first” philosophy, however, and it suits him well. He is quick and strong, and he has excellent instincts. He is also a true competitor. When the opponent lands a hard shot, Brunson wastes no time in launching a powerful attack of his own. Often this leads him to the clinch, where his physicality is a major advantage. Perhaps Brunson’s best asset is his ability to catch the opponent with short punches and elbows in the moments between positions and after breaks. Brunson’s transitional skills stand out on the ground, as well, where he excels in finding guillotines and rear-naked chokes while his opponents struggle to scramble out from under him.

Carneiro is a sharp transitional fighter himself, but he feels most comfortable on the ground. This is not to say he is a terrible striker. In fact, he might throw more combinations than Brunson and uses his strikes well to set up his takedowns. He is not, however, keen to stand with any opponent for long, and he is nowhere near as comfortable in the pocket as Brunson. Carneiro tends to retreat frantically when pressed and even pulls his own punches at times to avoid being countered.

Carneiro is an adept on the ground. He is a classic jiu-jitsu player, favoring a careful positional game that sets up airtight submissions. Carneiro sets traps, but he rarely attacks without first securing his position on the ground. His back mount is a particular specialty. Carneiro does an excellent job of latching onto his opponent’s back at the first opportunity and uses his legs expertly to control the situation, switching deftly from hooks to leg laces to body triangles. When Carneiro cannot find the rear-naked choke he is fond of using a kimura grip to attack with a straight armbar from the back. Should the opponent fail to turn his back, of course, Carneiro is more than happy to play from side control and mount. On top, he transitions smoothly from one position to another, threatening north-south chokes, guillotines and arm-triangles all in quick succession.

THE ODDS: Brunson (-365), Carneiro (+300)

THE PICK: With a star-studded record stretching all the way back to July 2000, Carneiro has amassed a great deal of valuable experience that Brunson simply does not possess. At a certain point, however, the game always changes. Brunson’s aggressive, well-rounded approach to MMA is a perfect foil to Carneiro’s old-school specialization. To win this fight, Carneiro needs to get the Jackson-Wink MMA rep to the ground, while Brunson has plenty of options elsewhere, especially in the clinch, where he will almost certainly end up after stuffing the Brazilian’s takedowns. Brunson is the superior wrestler, the more dangerous striker and the meaner fighter, in general. Brunson only wins two ways: quick finish or stifling decision. In this case, the former seems more likely. The pick is Brunson by first-round TKO.

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