Women’s Flyweights
#7 P4P | Erin Blanchfield (12-2, 6-1 UFC) vs. #6 P4P | Rose Namajunas (13-6, 11-5 UFC)Valentina Shevchenko is back atop the UFC women’s flyweight division, and while Manon Fiorot appears to be next up for the two-time champion, this fight seems likely to decide who’s next in line after the Frenchwoman. Namajunas’ move up to flyweight has been surprisingly unremarkable given the volatility of her career at strawweight. Namajunas was almost immediately tabbed for stardom, as she was a dynamic prospect prior to her UFC career, then a standout—as a fighter and a personality—on the season of “The Ultimate Fighter” that essentially served as the UFC’s launch of the 115-pound weight class. After dropping the first title fight for the vacant belt to Carla Esparza, Namajunas remained one of the UFC’s top strawweights, even while wearing her mental struggles on her sleeve, which showed up in the cage most notably in a 2016 loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Those struggles became a crucial part of the leadup to her 2017 title fight against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who was in the middle of a dominant run as strawweight champion, which in turn made it even more cathartic when Namajunas knocked out the Pole and then beat her in a rematch, which resulted in the grittiest performance of her career. That seemed to mark Namajunas’ true breakthrough as an elite fighter, but her next title defense saw Jessica Andrade brutally knock her out with a slam to take the belt, and talk for the next year and change mostly centered around the potential that she would retire. Namajunas managed to charge back to the title, and history essentially repeated itself, this time with a two-fight series against Weili Zhang—she won the championship via first-round knockout before defending it in a hard-fought decision—and a loss to Esparza, which this time came in the one of the worst fights in mixed martial arts history. For whatever reason, Namajunas decided to focus on defense and little else, taking Esparza out of the fight but not accomplishing anything herself, giving “Cookie Monster” just enough of an opening to take the split decision. Just like before, it sent Namajunas into radio silence as many wondered if she would step away from the sport. Instead, Namajunas decided to pursue a new start up a division at 125 pounds, with Fiorot marking her first challenge in her new division back in September 2023. It was a clear Fiorot win but also a hard fight to parse from a Namajunas standpoint, as she broke her finger almost immediately in the fight and struggled to adjust against one of the flyweight division’s biggest bullies. The former strawweight champion has proven herself to be a capable flyweight over the course of 2024, as she has racked up two drama-free main event wins over Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez. Namajunas might not have the athletic snap to her strikes that she had as a lighter fighter, but she’s still rangy and accurate enough to cause some problems, and her physical strength has held up surprisingly well, with her finding some wrestling success against both Ribas and Cortez. It has all been very solid and unspectacular, which actually serves as a bit of fresh air after Namajunas’ last few years, and it might be enough to put her in position to become a two-division champion, provided she gets by Blanchfield.
Blanchfield is coming off the first major setback of her career, so it will be fascinating to see how the New Jersey native shores things up in another big spot. Blanchfield was highly regarded as a prospect prior to her UFC debut, particularly thanks to her young age, but there was the worry that she was a bit overhyped. She flashed a lot of tools but had not developed much of a consistent approach, and her 2019 loss to Cortez showed she could get stalled out against a stronger wrestler. After running through Sarah Alpar in her UFC debut, it became apparent that Blanchfield would be able to hit the ground running. She had matured into a much physically stronger fighter during the year-plus layoff ahead of that UFC debut, and with that came a much more focused game built on pressure and bullying her opponents. Blanchfield did have to resort to brute force at times rather than any sort of technical game plan, but it was hard to argue with the results when she was overpowering opponents like Andrade and Taila Santos as part of her charge towards a title shot. Then came a main event against Fiorot in March, and that’s where Blanchfield finally hit her ceiling. She was not quite as bullheaded as she had been in past fights, but Blanchfield still tried a lot of things to little success against Fiorot, who was able to stall out New Jersey native’s physical wrestling while also hitting her hard enough to question her ability to pressure. That performance is also clearly a worry here, particularly as Namajunas continues to keep settling into a flyweight frame. The former strawweight champion should be able to effectively play matador on the feet, and while Blanchfield might be her most dogged opponent yet in terms of pressing a wrestling advantage, Namajunas’ recent performances do suggest she could be more up to the task in countering that than most would have thought prior to her move up to flyweight. It still would not be a shock if Blanchfield won a pure grind, but Namajunas should be able to do a lot of work given this is a five-round fight, even if it takes a round or two to warm up and adjust. The pick is Namajunas via decision.
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Moreno vs. Albazi
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The Prelims