Brad Katona (14-3) vs. Jean Matsumoto (15-0)
Odds: Matsumoto (-265), Katona (+215)
For better or for worse, Brad Katona's second UFC stint seems headed the same way as the first. The UFC first parted ways with Katona in 2019, which was a bit of a surprise; he had won his season of TUF the year prior and had put together a solid four-fight campaign, and his lone definitive loss came against eventual champ Merab Dvalishvili. But the promotion's always been hit-or-miss when it comes to their enthusiasm for unexciting technicians, and so Katona was shown the door after dropping a controversial decision to Hunter Azure. As expected, Katona chugged along and had a successful career on the regional scene, then got the call for a TUF return last year, eventually becoming the first two-time TUF winner after beating Cody Gibson in a fun scrap. But now "Superman" has settled into much the same spot he was in when he left; he's a solid athlete and it's hard to say he has any weaknesses, but his patience and complete lack of surprise in his well-structured game has made him a decision machine that doesn't have much of a margin for error. He dropped a narrow loss to Garrett Armfield to kick off the year before rebounding with a win over Jesse Butler, and now he serves as a solid test for rising prospect Jean Matsumoto. Matsumoto's had about the ideal rise up the ranks, starting as a professional in his late teens and putting in a few years of work against a solidly increasing level of competition, to the point that he's now quite poised for a young talent as he hits the big stage. He's a good athlete that can do a little bit of everything, and he's found a solid balance between patience and activity; he's always throwing out ideas, but his UFC debut win over Dan Argueta saw him keep fighting back and picking his spots against an aggressive wrestler until he was able to hop on a fight-ending submission. There's not many holes for Matsumoto to exploit here against Katona, so the end result should be a go-everywhere fight that sees both men get their licks in without separating themselves from the other; Matsumoto reads as a more dynamic athlete, so the Brazilian gets the nod here in what should be a close one. The pick is Matsumoto via decision.
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