Flyweights
Azat Maksum (17-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Charles Johnson (13-6, 2-4 UFC)Kazakhstan’s Maksum was an interesting addition to the UFC’s flyweight ranks when he signed with the promotion in 2023. A power-punching pressure fighter with an impressive grappling game, Maksum has all the tools to make a march into the 125-pound rankings. However, his UFC debut, a narrow win over Tyson Nam, exposed some of the flaws in Maksum’s typical approach. While he can crack, his low-output striking game is typically most effective as a method of getting to his wrestling, and Maksum does not always press the issue when it comes to getting his opponents to the mat. Maksum would be a lot more effective if he turned up the heat, and it will be interesting to see if he shows any newfound aggression against Johnson, who has run into much the same problem.
Johnson was a highly successful regional fighter when the UFC picked him up in 2022, but it was unclear how well his style would translate towards fights against better competition. A standout athlete with a large frame and impressive cardio, “InnerG” tended to get by with a low-output style that relied on his ability to outlast opponents and eventually find a finish. A faster-paced win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov to cap off 2022 raised some hopes that Johnson was learning to fight with a more effective approach, but he has fallen back into his more patient style and suffered three straight losses to close out 2023. Johnson’s issues have been compounded by the fact that his takedown defense has not been up to snuff during this losing streak. He can hold his own on the mat and usually fight his way back to his feet, but opponents have effectively slowed his output to a crawl without giving him the time or space to stage a comeback. The main question here involves whether or not Maksum has the aptitude to lean on his wrestling and likely take a clear decision as a result. If not, it is easy to see this turning into a slow-paced kickboxing match where neither man stands out. The pick is Maksum via decision, even if it will likely be harder than it should be.
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