Welterweights
Michael Morales (15-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. Jake Matthews (19-6, 12-6 UFC)Morales’ journey up the UFC's welterweight ranks continues, and it is a testament to the Ecuadorian’s talent that he is doing quite well despite clearly being far from a finished product. A dynamic finisher on the regional scene, Morales settled into a much more patient approach to earn a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. Faced with his first difficult opposition, Morales started slow and settled into the fight, showing off a range of skills to walk away with the decision win. Things have gone much the same since, with Morales finding a path to victory despite usually needing to feel things out against opposition that can actually stand up to his offense. Trevin Giles’ lack of defense led to a quick knockout, but Morales gutted through a hard-fought bout to knock out Adam Fugitt and outworked Max Griffin for a clear decision win in July. Morales still feels a bit aimless as he seems to be figuring things out inside the cage, but again, it is extremely impressive that he has been able to beat some solid veterans without much difficulty. At 24 years of age, Morales still has a few more potential breakthroughs to turn into something truly special. The latest opponent to step up and try to hand Morales his first loss is Matthews, himself a former young gun who has turned into a solid if sometimes frustrating veteran. A fresh-faced 19-year-old when the UFC picked him up in 2014, Matthews was a standout wrestler and grappler that the promotion hoped could be a potential star in Australia. However, even though “The Celtic Kid” put together some impressive victories early on, he clearly hit a physical wall at lightweight while trying to establish his game against stronger opponents. After a frustrating loss to Andrew Holbrook in 2016, Matthews took a year off to recover from some injuries and came back a much different fighter. He seemingly blossomed into adulthood during his layoff, returning as a massive welterweight with the physicality to try and find a new level of success. That never really came together, though. Matthews can still play the effective bully at times, but he has settled into an approach that is overall high on safety and low on dynamism, often fighting behind a range striking game that also takes him away from a lot of his best finishing tools. Matthews can still lay a beating upon an opponent when given an opening—a 2022 win over Andre Fialho was a surprisingly sharp performance that was nearly all one-way traffic—but a lot of his fights tend to see him try and win on some thin margins, necessitating that he shut out his opponents in terms of allowing any round-winning moments. That seems like a tough ask against Morales, who seems to naturally have the knack for arriving at one or two big moments of offense per round as he figures things out. This might be an ugly fight that shows Morales still needs some time to develop, but the Ecuadorian is a much more potent fighter in a bout that he is unlikely to be taken completely out of. The pick is Morales via decision.
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Allen vs. Craig
Morales vs. Matthews
Hooper vs. Leavitt
Talbott vs. Aguirre
Ribas vs. Pinheiro
Medic vs. Orolbai
The Prelims