Welterweights
Jake Matthews (18-5, 11-5 UFC) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (10-4, 4-2 UFC)This is an odd bit of matchmaking, though it should result in some fun. Matthews made his UFC debut in 2014 at just 19 years old, and the hope was that “The Celtic Kid” could build on his success as a wrestler and grappler to become one of the promotion’s Australian stars. Matthews certainly has not been a prospect bust, but he has instead rounded into a solid but unspectacular fighter, hitting a few different plateaus before settling in as a solid welterweight. Matthews has won a lot more than he has lost inside the Octagon, but with an approach built around steadiness and safety, he has usually become a bit of an afterthought. Even when given a blank slate like late-career Diego Sanchez as an opponent, Matthews settled in for a comfortable decision victory rather than bringing any sort of exciting dynamism to the table. That made Matthews’ June win over Andre Fialho such a pleasant surprise. Fialho was far from a walkover opponent, and Matthews actually did well to press his advantages and build on his success, putting him away with an electric second-round finish that brought the Australian his most exciting victory in years. It was enough to expect that Matthews might get another shot at a ranked opponent, possibly on the February card in his native Australia. Instead, he is back facing another raw prospect and one coming off a loss in Semelsberger. That is no slight against Semelsberger, as the Marylander is a talented fighter in his own right, but he has clearly had to learn on the job in the UFC after getting picked up as a raw talent in 2020. To his credit, Semelsberger has obviously figured some things out when given some tough matchmaking. He was in over his head against the likes of Kalinn Williams and Alex Morono, in particular, but maintained his cardio and power over three rounds while solving the issues in front of him. Semelsberger has also made easy work of obvious wins when he has needed to with sub-20 second knockouts of Jason Witt and Martin Sano, so “Semi The Jedi” is definitely worth investing in; he just needs time to develop that he is probably not going to get here. This looks like a fight where Matthews should clearly separate himself as the better fighter, but Semelsberger also presents enough physical talent and danger that it probably will not be an impressive victory. As such, it is unclear what this really does for either fighter. The pick is Matthews via decision.
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