Bantamweights
Raphael Assuncao (27-9) vs. Victor Henry (22-5)ODDS: Henry (-345), Assuncao (+285)
Any shot at title contention now seems long gone, but it'd be nice if Assuncao could stop this late-career slide. Highly successful for years, Assuncao has a case to be called of one of the most underrated fighters of all-time, owing to both an unspectacular fight style and a career that has seemed absolutely cursed. Assuncao's style is built around neutralizing his opponents with powerful counters and strong takedown defense; it wasn't particularly exciting, but after a decision win over T.J. Dillashaw to cap off 2013, Assuncao figured to be on the shortlist of potential next contenders for then-champ Renan Barao. Indeed, an opportunity for Assuncao to fight for the title opened up the following May - but unfortunately, that coincided with a cascade of injuries that left the Brazilian out of action for most of the next two years. Assuncao eventually returned for a 2016 rematch against Dillashaw - who by then had already won and lost the bantamweight title - where he obviously needed to shake off the rust; though after losing that fight, Assuncao went on another impressive if unspectacular winning streak of four fights, including victories over contenders like Marlon Moraes and Aljamain Sterling. But once again, that didn't get Assuncao much of anywhere - he finally got his first UFC main event in 2019, but that saw him lose a rematch to Moraes in less than three and a half minutes, which in turn has started a rough skid. Assuncao's approach always walked a bit of a tightrope, so as he's entered his late thirties, his small amounts of athletic slippage have resulted in tons of lost effectiveness; Cory Sandhagen outpaced him, while Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon each found enough volume and power to simply knock Assuncao out. Now riding four straight losses at 40 years old, what might be Assuncao's last chance for a UFC win comes against a tough test in Victor Henry. A pro since 2010, Henry figured to be ready for battle when he finally got the UFC call at the tail end of last year, eventually taking on Raoni Barcelos in January. Barcelos looked like a tough ask for a first test, so despite Henry's experience, it was a bit shocking when "La Mangosta" simply jumped out to an early lead on a ton of volume and refused to let Barcelos catch up. Given that Henry is already 35 years old, it's good to see the UFC not wasting time and handing him a big-name veteran, and this should be a winnable fight; thankfully for Assuncao, Henry isn't the type of one-punch knockout artist that can end this in an instant, but given how slow-paced Assuncao was even at his peak, Henry should have no issue racking up damage and separating himself on the scorecards. The pick is Henry via decision.
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