Heavyweights
#11 HW | Marcin Tybura (21-6, 8-5 UFC) vs. #8 HW | Walt Harris (13-9, 6-8 UFC)Harris has always been an impressive athlete, but it was never a guarantee that “The Big Ticket” would put things together. He did not shine in losing both fights in his first UFC stint, and his return shortly thereafter saw him lose in one-sided fashion against Soa Palelei. However, a knockout win over Cody East sparked a run that saw Harris establish himself as a dangerous and effective fighter. Even after seemingly hitting a ceiling in a 2017 loss to Fabricio Werdum, Harris rebounded with a four-fight unbeaten streak that included quick knockouts of Sergey Spivak and Alexey Oleynik. That set Harris up for a headlining bout against Alistair Overeem to cap off 2019. Then, tragedy struck, as Harris pulled out of the fight due to the murder of his stepdaughter. The Overeem bout was eventually re-booked as part of the UFC’s comeback from the coronavirus pandemic in May 2020, and the fight itself saw the Dutchman survive Harris’ opening barrage and score a comeback victory in the second round. Harris’ last bout saw him get little done against Alexander Volkov, and after a rough year-plus—both personally and professionally—he looks to rebound here against Tybura.
In stark contrast to Harris, Poland’s Tybura is riding a surprising wave of positive momentum. After dropping a rough UFC debut to Timothy Johnson back in 2016, Tybura retooled some things and eventually found a solid mix of striking and wrestling. In turn, that led to a winning streak that earned him a main event spot against Werdum in late 2017. Tybura did not get much done in that fight, and that led to a rough stretch of four losses in five appearances that put the Pole firmly on the roster bubble; knockout losses to Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai, in particular, were worrying signs about his future with the promotion. However, Tybura turned things around to a shocking degree in 2020, winning all four of his bouts in the calendar year. He simply outclassed Spivak and Maxim Grishin with his wrestling, and wins over Ben Rothwell and Greg Hardy saw him outlast his opponents before switching gears in one-sided fashion. That survival ability alone represented a huge turnaround from some of the losses Tybura had suffered just a year prior. Tybura does not have the athletic ceiling to get over the hump to true contender status and durability still has to be a bit of a concern, but the last year has given him some new life as a relevant heavyweight that should carry him for a good while longer.
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As Harris becomes more and more reliant on quick finishes, this bout has a relatively simple dynamic. Either Harris is able to put Tybura away in the first few minutes of the fight, or “Tybur” continues his recent streak of outlasting his opponents and takes over the bout in the later rounds. Even though Tybura has fought smarter lately, he does figure to get hit hard a bunch in the opening moments. Harris has always found early success against less athletic opponents, and Tybura has had his share of slow starts, even during this winning streak. In that regard, it becomes a matter of whether or not Harris is dangerous enough to finish the job. There is certainly some worry on that end of things. While it is difficult to ever truly write off any heavyweight due to age, Harris is nearing 38 years old with an approach that has always been dependent on his athleticism. The bet for now is that Harris still has enough in the tank to take care of Tybura early. However, if this goes past the first round, Tybura figures to take over huge and likely score a finish. The pick is Harris via first-round knockout.
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