Preview: UFC Fight Night 180 Main Card

Women’s Flyweights

Jessica Andrade (20-8) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (14-3)

ODDS: Andrade (-135), Chookagian (+115)

This serves as Andrade’s transition to flyweight, which is an interesting gambit given that “Bate Estaca” is as reliant on her physicality as any high-level fighter in the UFC. Andrade was an obviously talented prospect as a bantamweight but too flawed to be effective, which all went out the door when she decided to cut down to 115 pounds. She absolutely bulldozed Jessica Penne at UFC 199, and from there, it was off to the races. Joanne Calderwood provided little resistance, and while Angela Hill managed to stay upright and fight back, Andrade just kept charging forward and landing offense. However, all that came to an end in Andrade’s title fight against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. After a spot of early trouble, Jedrzejczyk managed to play matador without much difficulty, as Andrade’s lack of nuance led to her getting picked apart while the champion stayed nimble and evasive. Andrade rebounded well, stringing together an even stronger run of wins by overpowering Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres and scoring a shockingly brutal knockout of Karolina Kowalkiewicz. That led to another title shot, this time against Rose Namajunas, which looked like a redux of the Jedrzejczyk fight in the early going. Namajunas stayed out at range and basically landed whatever she wanted at the blank defensive slate in front of her. However, a clinch in the second round changed everything, as Andrade managed to lift Namajunas and drop her on her head, ending the fight in horrifying fashion and claiming the strawweight title in the process. Events have gone sharply downhill from Andrade since. Weili Zhang met Andrade head-on and stopped her in just 42 seconds to take the title, and while the Brazilian enjoyed some success in a rematch against Namajunas, the end result was a decision loss. Those two defeats left Andrade clearly out of the strawweight title picture, so while this move to 125 pounds nullifies a lot of her natural advantages, it might be a necessary step for the time being. If nothing else, a win over Chookagian would immediately put her in the running for the next flyweight title shot.

The book on Chookagian appeared to be written just a few fights into her UFC career. She was essentially Holly Holm without the elite athleticism that gives the latter a huge margin for error. For all of Chookagian’s run at bantamweight and her first few fights at flyweight, the story was the same. She would implement a mobile and neutralizing kickboxing game, take things to a split decision and win more often than she lost. That has made the last year surprisingly impressive for the “Blonde Fighter,” as she has shown some sudden evolution. Her November encounter with Jennifer Maia was the first such instance, as Chookagian showed a newfound willingness to sit down and put some power behind her strikes—a change that paid some dividends. Unfortunately for Chookagian, that led to a beating at the hands of Valentina Shevchenko, a woman against whom none of her improvements figured to help much. Against Antonina Shevchenko in May, Chookagian suddenly showed a decent wrestling game that led her to a dominant win. Admittedly, outwrestling the lesser Shevchenko sister is not much of an accomplishment, but it is always impressive to see someone fight completely against type in order to take advantage of an opponent’s weaknesses. Andrade has some clear positives and negatives to her game, so it will be interesting to see if Chookagian decides to tailor her approach to fit her opponent once again.

Chookagian has some paths to victory, which makes this an interesting fight. In fact, for all her recent adjustments and improvements, it might be best for Chookagian to revert to her older style here. She seemingly valued elusiveness over all else—particularly effective offense—in the halcyon days of 2018, and Andrade has already proven to have difficulty tracking down a much larger opponent who looks to stay out of danger. The concern would be Andrade’s speed. Even if Andrade is a straight-ahead brute in terms of her approach to pressure, Chookagian may not have the footspeed to stay entirely out of trouble for 15 minutes. In the event that Chookagian fights a smart fight and attempts to stay out of danger, Andrade should still be able to find moments of extremely effective offense, even if it is not enough to score an outright finish; and for all her newfound willingness to put some power behind her strikes, Chookagian is still nowhere close to a finishing threat, so any attempts to meet Andrade head-on would likely end in disaster. This could be a frustrating affair, but the pick is Andrade via decision.

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