Welterweights
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (21-5) vs. Jingliang Li (16-5) vs.ODDS: Zaleski dos Santos (-280), Li (+240)
The UFC’s welterweight division continues to be an embarrassment of riches, as the promotion smashes talented fighters together before they even get a chance at a breakout win. As the UFC ramped up its schedule in 2014-15, Zaleski dos Santos’ debut could have easily been missed. While his split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby resulted a fun fight, it was exactly the type of prelim bout that gets overlooked during a run of eight events in eight weeks. From there, “Capoeira” quietly rebounded on undercard after undercard, racking up exciting win after exciting win until he had suddenly won six in a row and become a hardcore favorite in the process. Come 2019, it seems like the UFC finally realized what it had in Zaleski dos Santos, as he suddenly went from the prelims to a co-main event, shockingly pivoting from wild striker to submission artist in a quick win over Curtis Millender in March. There was talk of Zaleski dos Santos fighting Neil Magny -- the fight was briefly advertised in May, apparently even before the Brazilian was offered the match -- but instead, he gets his second straight co-headlining slot. It is still an uphill battle, as Zaleski dos Santos has to head to China to face one of the country’s top fighters and a tough out in Li.
When the UFC first tried to make inroads into China, circa 2014, Li was the one solid find from those efforts. It has been an impressive transition for Li, who initially lived up to his nickname -- “The Leech” -- but quickly realized being a grinding wrestler was not going to work in the UFC. He instead pivoted and became an action brawler. Li has faced his own uphill battle to become an actual contender. Despite a surprising amount of success and his delivering a ton of action in the process, the UFC has only recently come around to the idea of Li as more than a regional curio, seeking to book him with some actual contenders. However, an April booking against Alex Oliveira fizzled due to a Li injury, so now, he returns as a featured attraction on a Chinese card, although the UFC did have the decency to bring a rising contender to Li this time around.
This fight figures to be a war if it lasts any length of time, but therein lies the rub. Both men are notorious for often making their wins more difficult than they need to be, but Li has followed the much clearer pattern. The Chinese fighter needs about a round to truly get into a fight, but his feeling-out process is quite inefficient, as it usually involved his getting hit a ton by his opponents while he attempts to read their offense. That is probably not the way to go against Zaleski dos Santos, either standing or on the mat. The Brazilian has shown the ability to catch an opponent like Sean Strickland with one of his crazy strikes, and the Millender fight in March showed a newfound willingness to immediately exploit his advantage on the mat. Li’s path to victory is to take abuse early, outlast Zaleski dos Santos and win a decision unless he scores a late stoppage. Zaleski dos Santos is probably a potent enough finisher that things will not get past that first step. Li has never suffered a knockout loss, but the choice is for Zaleski dos Santos to catch him out of the gate and earn a first-round stoppage.
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