Heavyweights
Stefan Struve (28-11) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (16-5-1)After a decade on the UFC roster, it seems safe to say that Struve probably will not live up to his potential. Struve debuted at UFC 95 and quickly gained a ton of hype thanks to his 7-foot frame; if he ever mastered the ability to keep his opponents at range, he could be unbeatable, and his long limbs provided for a surprisingly lethal grappling game that allowed him to rack up some submissions. After an up-and-down few years, a 2012 win over Stipe Miocic suggested that Struve might finally be turning the corner. Instead, that was probably the peak of his career. In Struve’s next fight after the Miocic win, Mark Hunt shattered his jaw, and the ensuing discovery of a heart condition threatened the chances of ever making a comeback. It took almost two years -- and an anxiety attack that cancelled another fight -- but Struve did eventually make his way back to the cage, though the results have been lackluster. Struve has managed to beat faded fighters like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Antonio Silva and had a few decent rounds before getting finished by Alexander Volkov, but it has been a slow descent for someone who is still relatively young for a heavyweight. When it comes to striking, Struve’s frame now simply means there is more of him to hit, and his submission game does not seem all that threatening anymore, with opponents like Andrei Arlovski having taken down Struve at will. With that said, the state of the heavyweight division is such that Struve’s floor is still probably that of a UFC-level fighter. However, coming off three straight losses, this bout against Rogerio de Lima looks to be a test of that belief.
Until November, Rogerio de Lima was relatively easy to peg. He has traditionally had one of the shortest average fight times in the UFC, and that was due to a pretty simple dynamic: He would try to bomb his opponents with punches for about two minutes, and if they survived, he would get completely gassed and get finished himself shortly thereafter. That made him a safe bet for some quick, violent action at light heavyweight, but then “Pezao” moved up to heavyweight and had his fight against Adam Wieczorek. In one of the more unexpected switch-ups in recent memory, Rogerio de Lima fought completely against type, relying on his wrestling and earning a decision win for the first time in nearly a decade. It was a solid, measured performance, but it also raises the question of how exactly he approaches things going forward.
This is a hard one to call in all of the worst ways. Struve cannot be trusted anymore, and Rogerio de Lima’s last performance was such a head-scratcher in terms of projecting his future fights. The Brazilian’s best bet is probably to go back to his blitzkrieg ways. Yes, it only gives him a two-minute window to get the finish, but Struve is such a huge target with a lack of durability that he will probably go down like a shot giraffe. However, if Rogerio de Lima remains a patient, measured fighter who looks to wrestle, this just gets weird. Struve’s submission game is a bit overrated and ineffective against better competition, but it is unclear if Rogerio de Lima clears that bar, particularly since he has a bunch of recent submission losses. It is hard to have faith in either fighter, so this is the type of bout where a pick either way has the potential to look very dumb in very short order, but the call is for Struve to score a second-round submission.
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