Heavyweights
Alistair Overeem (43-17) vs. Sergey Pavlovich (12-0)ODDS: Pavlovich (-125), Overeem (+105)
It looks like Overeem might be entering the gatekeeper phase of his career. It has been a wild 20 years of reinvention for the Dutchman, from a reedy light heavyweight to a jacked-up heavyweight -- due to “horse meat,” of course -- to his current form, a wily veteran striker who, while a bit deflated, now knows how to protect his chin. After coming back from a 2012 drug test failure, Overeem briefly looked like a bust thanks to his durability suddenly abandoning him, but over time, he developed a more defensive striking style -- with some wrestling mixed in -- that allowed him to slowly work towards a finish rather than set a sprint that he was likely to lose. That new form got him to a title shot against Stipe Miocic, and after losing a wild fight, Overeem rebounded with wins over Mark Hunt and Fabricio Werdum to prove he was still a top veteran contender. Unfortunately for him, some new blood finally made its way up the division, and Overeem wound up being a steppingstone. Both Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes made their names with absolutely brutal finishes of Overeem. Now, he once again finds himself in the position of trying to fend off a young gun, as he faces the debuting Pavlovich.
Despite making his pro MMA debut less than four years ago, it feels like Pavlovich has been a top heavyweight prospect for a good while. While he comes from a wrestling background, Pavlovich made a name for himself with quick knockout finishes, dispatching eight of his first nine opponents in the first round. That seemed to dry up a bit as Pavlovich faced top Russian veterans and prospects -- including a weird, slow-paced fight against teammate and sparring partner Mikhail Mokhnatkin -- but he recaptured some shine in his last fight, a quick knockout of Fedor Emelianenko protege Kirill Sidelnikov. Pavlovich figures to be a divisional stalwart for as long as the UFC is willing to pay him, and the promotion rightfully saw there was no point in watching him beat overmatched opponents to earn his way up the ladder. It just remains to be seen if Overeem is too big of a jump.
There should at least be tons of tension for as long as this fight lasts. Pavlovich can crack, and Overeem’s chin issues are some of the most notorious in the sport. However, this fight does feel like it will be 15 minutes of waiting for a knockout that never comes. Pavlovich has a patient, one-punch-at-a-time style, and when combined with his stocky frame and lack of reach, Overeem should be able to avoid trouble and cruise his way to a victory. It is a worthy attempt to make a top prospect an immediate contender, but this is a fight where Overeem should keep the gate closed. The pick is Overeem via decision.
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