Preview: UFC Fight Night 116 ‘Rockhold vs. Branch’

Welterweights

Mike Perry (10-1) vs. Alex Reyes (12-2): The ripple effects of Hurricane Irma’s destruction are felt in our co-headliner. Originally, former UFC title challenger Thiago Alves was set for an all-Florida showdown with brazen brawler Perry. However, rather than evacuate from his home as the hurricane hit, Alves opted to stay with his wife and child, and in the wake of Irma, he was stranded in south Florida and unable to make the event. In his place steps Alex Reyes, brother of UFC light heavyweight Dominick Reyes. A competent Muay Thai striker trained by Colin Oyama, Reyes prefers to circle opponents and then rush them with punching combinations, punctuated with low kicks, knees or level changes for a takedown. He is not a dynamite wrestler but sets up smart takedowns and is a capable guard passer and submission artist on top, pounding his way into dominant positions, overwhelming foes and looking for choke opportunities. Unfortunately, Reyes is actually a lightweight, he has just one fight in the last two years -- a 66-second knockout three weeks ago -- and is coming in on three days’ notice to take on an incredibly potent offensive fighter just hitting his stride. Perry is not much of a kicker, preferring to dictate the striking with crisp, powerful boxing; he is a home run threat with both hands and can counter just as well as he leads. More than that, he excels at moving between ranges, as he flurries with his hands in close, entering and exiting the clinch with howitzer knees and elbows, as Jake Ellenberger found out when Perry victimized him with a blistering standing elbow in a “Knockout of the Year” contender in April. Given his fight style and temperament, we are unlikely to see “Platinum” working a diligent submission game, but he is a solid wrestler, can dish out heavy ground-and-pound and most importantly is a natural, skilled sprawl-and-brawler who can pancake takedown attempts and either quickly stand or smash opponents for their efforts. Between the short notice and the style matchup, Reyes will find himself on the business end of Perry’s artillery in the first half of the fight.

Middleweights

Hector Lombard (34-5-1) vs. Anthony Smith (27-12): At 39 years old and having lost three bouts in a row, Lombard’s back is against the wall, as he takes on the quietly surging Smith. While Lombard is definitely starting to show signs of wear and tear, his three consecutive defeats are unique. He nearly killed Neil Magny before referee Steve Perceval let Lombard take a lifetime of punishment afterward; Dan Henderson hit him with an astounding back-elbow counter for the ages; and many felt he deserved the nod over Johny Hendricks in February. The rangy Smith, who will enjoy a six-inch reach advantage over Lombard, has a fantastic muay Thai game, from varied kicks at range to nasty elbows and knees from the collar tie. He also has some slick, sneaky submissions. We know what look Lombard will present, slowly stalking forward, inching toward his foe with sparse jabs, his left hand locked and loaded. While his trademark, jaw-shattering power crops up less and less often now, one Lombard left hand is still likely to put any middleweight down for a nap, and Smith will certainly throw enough volume on the feet to give Lombard something at which to swing. However, as we saw in bouts against Henderson, Hendricks and many others, when Lombard gets frustrated on the feet and cannot land, he goes into the clinch and puts his Olympic-level judo to use, or at least tries to do so. It may not have been successful against a former two-time NCAA Division I champion like Hendricks, but against Smith, who was soundly outwrestled by Cezar Ferreira of all people, it seems likely to pay richer dividends. “Lionheart” also has a tendency to throw lazy kicks from range, which Lombard can prey on in terms of counterpunching or seeking the takedown. We are unlikely to be reminded of the former Bellator MMA champion whose left hand routinely put opponents out on a stretcher, but in a must-win situation, Lombard will play it tactical and close to the vest by forcing a smothering clinch battle along the fence and putting Smith on the mat to take the decision win.

Lightweights

Gregor Gillespie (9-0) vs. Jason Gonzalez (11-3): One of the best prospects on the UFC roster, Gillespie faces a big test in Gonzalez -- literally. Gonzalez is a 6-foot-2 southpaw whose muay Thai stylings are very much representative of trainer Rafael Cordeiro and the Kings MMA team. He has crushing leg kicks and uses his size inside to land fantastic knees. His jab is good, his hooks and uppercuts are better and he is no slouch on the mat. After punishing his opponents from distance, Gonzalez often baits them into desperate takedowns and then uses the front headlock to look for chokes or transition to the back. Gillespie has made great strides in the striking game working out of the Bellmore Kickboxing Academy, but given Gonzalez’s size and style, it is unlikely this is a fight where Gillespie will force that agenda. Gillespie is liable to close the distance behind a simple jab-cross and put his wrestling to work. A former NCAA Division I national champion and four-time All-American, Gillespie does not just get takedowns or ride and pound. He is a natural, smooth guard passer who always seems to be shrewdly advancing his position, unleashing more and more offense as he goes from guard to half to side and finally mount, where he puts it in fifth gear and pounds away until a stoppage or a submission presents itself. His pressure is constant, yet smooth and effortless, best shown in his command of scrambles, where he either gets a dominant position or ensures his opponent stays stuck to the mat. Gonzalez will get some chances to catch Gillespie coming in, but he will eventually wind up on his back. Gonzalez is a good scrambler; unfortunately for him, Gillespie is even better and makes his opponents pay the price for trying to scramble, sweep or simply stand up. Gonzalez may get in a few good licks but will ultimately succumb to Gillespie’s constant grappling assault -- whether it means a ground-and-pound stoppage or a submission precipitated by said punishment -- within the first 10 minutes.

Welterweights

Sergio Moraes (12-2-1) vs. Kamaru Usman (10-1): Given Usman’s powerhouse wrestling and Moraes’ world-class jiu-jitsu, we could be in for one of those “two grapplers stuck on the feet” sort of fights. That is not necessarily cause for despair in this case, though. Under Henri Hooft’s tutelage, Usman has become a much more competent striker over his last several bouts, using feints and footwork to get into the mid-range and then exploding with heavy punching combinations to set up his takedowns. Meanwhile, while Moraes is still rigid and visually awkward in the standup, he always seems to find a way to land some ugly but effective punches. The Brazilian is also able to mask many of his technical deficiencies when he gets into the clinch, where he is a fantastic dirty boxer and can of course generate takedowns, as well. The question here is which man, if either, will try to wrestle. Usman is at his best on top, passing guard, piling up punches and elbows and wearing out his foes, but one botched shot or scramble is all Moraes needs to lock up a choke or take the back. Meanwhile, will Moraes bother shooting and possibly wasting his energy -- cardio is not a strong suit -- against such a stout, strong wrestler? Unfortunately for Moraes, he may be forced into that scenario if Usman shows continued striking growth, and even if he is not, he will have to find a way to land his wild haymakers against a controlled, disciplined tactician. Usman lands punches from range, knuckles up Moraes in the clinch, perhaps lands a takedown or two and wins a decision.

Heavyweights

Azunna Anyanwu (13-4) vs. Justin Ledet (8-0): For the second time, a proposed fight between Ledet and Ukraine’s Dmitriy Sosnovskiy has fallen apart. In Sosnovskiy’s stead steps northeastern regional staple Anyanwu, who paved his path to the UFC with a nasty knockout on the first edition of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders Series. These two heavyweights have complimentary styles that should make for an entertaining scrap. Ledet is a strong fundamental boxer with high punch output, while Anyanwu is a positively devastating counterpuncher. Both men have surprisingly strong grappling chops, too. Anyanwu’s biggest issue tends to be that he stands around and waits for counter opportunities; he may be helped in this case by Ledet’s striking volume giving him more of those chances. However, Anyanwu is still a 260-pound heavyweight coming in on short notice and facing not just an unbeaten, well-rounded prospect but one who will pressure him from the outset of the fight and not relent. Ledet, a former basketball player who has a 5-0 pro boxing record, is a great athlete, and it shows in his fitness and pace. If he starts fast and begins bombarding Anyanwu to the legs, body and head, it may force “Zulu” to look for an early takedown. Grappling too much with Ledet may be a mistake, however. While Anyanwu is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, Ledet is likely the craftier man in scrambles and transitions. Look for Ledet to attack early and often and wear down his substitute opponent en route to a TKO stoppage or submission on a tired Anyanwu in the second half of the bout.

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