Welterweights
#3 WW | Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0, 6-0 UFC) vs. #7 WW | Ian Garry (15-0, 8-0 UFC)It would have been nice to see Rakhmonov get a title shot as originally intended on this card, but with Belal Muhammad injured, this matchup of undefeated welterweights is a strong replacement. Rakhmonov’s rise has seemed fairly inevitable since he made his way to the UFC in 2020. His pressure-heavy approach looked a bit messy on the regional scene in Kazakhstan, but after “Nomad” quickly dispatched Alex Oliveira in his UFC debut, it became apparent that Rakhmonov had the level of power and athleticism to cause a lot of problems for the rest of the division. There’s almost not much to say from there, since Rakhmonov’s rise has been free of much adversity—a point driven home by the fact that every fight of his career has seen him finish things inside the distance. There are still quibbles to be had with Rakhmonov’s approach, as there isn’t much thought to what opponents bring to the table as he marches them down, but it isn’t clear who can stand up to him in a war of attrition just yet. Geoff Neal had the horsepower to frustrate Rakhmonov at points but still wound up getting submitted in the last minute of their fight. It’s a resume worthy of a title shot, but Rakhmonov now needs to get one more win against Garry to hold top contender status, which seems likely but not guaranteed.
While Rakhmonov’s momentum has only built with each impressive performance, Garry gets the biggest spot of his career at an odd time. Even beyond the drama that seems to constantly follow him outside the cage, Garry’s last few showings raise some questions about exactly how ready he is to make the leap from top prospect to top contender. Garry was obviously the UFC’s next big Irish hope when the promotion picked him up in 2020. Just 23 years old at the time, “The Future” had already proven all there was left to prove against strong regional competition, leveraging his long frame as a crafty striker and a capable wrestler and grappler. There were initially some issues that figured to be ironed out with experience, as Garry’s upright striking style sometimes led to him taking some unnecessary punishment, but that was overshadowed by the fact that he looked sharper and sharper with each fight, even calling his shot ahead of time with a head kick knockout of Daniel Rodriguez in 2023. Garry took Neil Magny apart to cap off the year and entered 2024 looking for a breakout to top contender status. While Garry has won both of his fights this year, he also seems to have plateaued in the process. Neal and Michael Page were each the clearest knockout threats that Garry had faced in his career to date and also the two opponents with the clearest athletic advantages, some combination of which has taken him completely off his game. Garry has usually done well to take his time to break down his opponents as needed, but against Neal and Page he just looked outright tentative, with both fights turning slow and fairly ugly at points as he fought behind a more neutralizing approach. There’s something to be said for being safe, but there needs to be some sort of risk-taking to win at a championship level; and while Garry was able to frustrate Neal and Page for long stretches, both men were able to land hard enough shots to conceivably take decisions. Garry still managed to skate by with two wins, and while his future remains bright, it does feel like he’s heading for a reckoning in the short term. It could come here. If this were a three-round fight, it would be easier to see a scenario where Garry mucks things up against Rakhmonov’s occasionally rudimentary pressure and ekes out another coinflip victory. However, given five rounds with which to work, Rakhmonov once again seems inevitable. The pick is Rakhmonov via third-round submission.
Jump To »
Pantoja vs. Asakura
Rakhmonov vs. Garry
Gane vs. Volkov
Mitchell vs. Gracie
Landwehr vs. Choi
The Prelims