Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1) vs. Justin Tafa (7-3, 1 N/C)
Odds: de Lima (-142), Tafa (+120)
The UFC's always on the hunt for someone to make an impact at heavyweight, and Tafa has officially done enough damage to be interesting at this point in his UFC career. New Zealand's "Bad Man" was essentially unproven when the UFC picked him up ahead of a card in Australia back in 2019, and Tafa showed his inexperience in his UFC debut against Yorgan De Castro, charging directly into a knockout about two minutes into the fight. Tafa learned some much-needed patience in that fight, but for a while it appeared he might have overcompensated in the process; he knocked out Juan Adams, but decision losses to Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa were fights where Tafa never really picked up the pace enough to leverage his considerable power. Tafa thankfully seems to have landed at a bit of a balance, going undefeated in four fights since the loss to Vanderaa, but it's still a bit hard to tell exactly how much of his success is due to his matchups; 2023 did see him blast both Parker Porter and Austen Lane in short order, but they were both opponents that figured to leave themselves open for the opportunity sooner rather than later. This matchup should answer a lot of questions about where Tafa is at the moment, as Brazilian veteran de Lima is on gatekeeper duty once again.
"Pezao" is nearing a decade on the UFC roster since coming to the promotion as a light heavyweight in 2014, and at one point he had one of the lowest average fight times in the sport, hunting for a quick knockout and imploding shortly afterwards if one wasn't available. But he's added a few new wrinkles to his game since a move up to heavyweight in 2018; he's willing to pivot to a control-heavy wrestling game if all else fails, and is now sometimes content to peck away at his opponents from range to see what shakes out. De Lima was on a bit of a hot streak up until a big opportunity against Derrick Lewis last July, which went poorly; Lewis took the initiative by starting the fight with a flying knee, then ended things in just 33 seconds. De Lima is certainly the more complete fighter, so this is his fight to lose if it goes any length of time; the main question is whether or not Tafa can get into gear quickly enough to start an exchange and find an early finish. It's essentially a coin flip, but Tafa seems to be clicking enough to be worth the flier here; this fight could easily go quite south, but the pick is Tafa via first-round knockout.
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