Preview: UFC 295 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

#13 WSW | Lupita Godinez (11-3, 6-3 UFC) vs. #10 WSW | Tabatha Ricci (9-1, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Godinez (-170), Ricci (+142)

Godinez has seemingly been on the verge of a breakthrough during her entire two and a half years under the UFC banner, so it will be interesting to see if this is where she finally gets over the hump. A standout wrestler, Godinez has mixed in both tantalizing and disappointing performances during her UFC career. Her best wins have seen her look like an absolute terror as she pressures opponents and puts them through the ringer, but every time she looks to be hitting career-best form, her next fight usually sees her getting frustrated ahead of a decision loss. For as much quiet confidence as “Loopy” brings to the proceedings—she is firmly in the mold of stepping in against anyone at any time, even once fighting on a seven-day turnaround—it has usually taken surprisingly little to take her out of her game, whether it was the considerable size advantage of Luana Carolina or the submission threats of Jessica Penne and Cynthia Calvillo. Godinez’s fight against Calvillo—a decision win in April—does seem like a bit of a turning point, as she was content to win a slow-paced striking match that went against her traditional approach, though after a similar victory over Emily Ducote, there was the worry that she had lost some of her aggression. Those went out the window with her September rout of Elise Reed. Everything was clicking in traditional Godinez form and looked sharper than ever in what wound up as a one-sided thrashing. Now Godinez just needs to prove she can put that type of showing together against a much more dangerous opponent. That is where Ricci steps in. A standout grappler, Ricci paid her dues in her UFC debut. Undersized even at strawweight at 5-foot-1, it was a cruel bit of matchmaking to have her take on massive flyweight Manon Fiorot on late notice. Once that was out of the way, Ricci cut back down to 115 pounds and has impressed every time out. “Baby Shark” is hard-nosed and unshakeable in whatever she tries to get done and keeps widening her base of skills. Wins over Maria Oliveira and Polyana Viana were unmemorable decisions, but she showed off her grappling acumen with a submission victory over Penne and then outboxed Gillian Robertson for the better part of three rounds in June. Ricci’s size figures to give her some issues against top-flight competition for the rest of her career, but she seems to have enough speed to make striking a viable backup plan. Robertson looked quite slow-footed as Ricci played undersized sniper and stayed out of danger. Interestingly, Ricci should be buoyed by some rare size parity against the stocky Godinez, even though a lot of this fight comes down to how “Loopy” chooses to approach things. She has traditionally been loath to pursue her wrestling against opponents with a viable submission threat, but that looks to be her clearest path to victory against someone with Ricci’s speed. Add in that Ricci might even be too fast for the best version of Godinez to track down, and the Brazilian gets the nod. The pick is Ricci via decision.

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