Middleweights
#4 WW | Khamzat Chimaev (12-0, 6-0 UFC) vs. #7 P4P | Kamaru Usman (20-3, 15-2 UFC)This marks the second fight that was likely improved due to a last-minute change, as it has gone from a potential walkover for Chimaev to one of the more interesting tests during his seemingly inevitable rise to championship status. Chimaev was signed as a late replacement in 2020 and immediately became the talk of the sport, running through John Phillips and then turning around 10 days later for a similarly dominant win over Rhys McKee. After knocking out Gerald Meerschaert in 17 seconds less than two months later, it looked like “Borz” might wind up in title contention in record time, particularly when the UFC’s next move was to book him in a main event against then-contender Leon Edwards. However, Chimaev’s rise got a lot less simple from there, starting with the fact that a severe case of COVID-19 seemingly prompted him to retire until he eventually changed course. It still took him over a year to return for yet another quick and dominant win, this time over Jingliang Li. Heading into 2022, Chimaev was matched against Gilbert Burns in a pairing that finally figured to answer a lot of questions about his game, and he answered most of them in the positive. Chimaev proved his durability and cardio in earning a decision win over Burns, as the two went toe-to-toe in a three-round war that saw each man overcome some rough moments. Even though the Burns victory seemed to establish Chimaev as a top contender to Usman, then the welterweight champion, the situation once again got complicated. First, Edwards scored an upset win over Usman, necessitating a rematch that delayed Chimaev’s timeline. Then Chimaev threw UFC 279 into chaos. He missed weight by nearly 10 pounds for what would have been a clear blowout win, forcing the UFC to switch up the card—he instead ran over Kevin Holland—and send Chimaev up to middleweight. It has taken 13 months for Chimaev to return to action, and after initial opponent Paulo Costa was pulled from the fight due to injury, things have somehow gone full circle, as it is Usman who steps up to meet him on late notice.
Clearly deposed as welterweight king by Edwards after losing their trilogy bout in March, Usman found himself without an obvious next move, so this trip up to middleweight is a bit unsurprising. In retrospect, Usman’s rise to the welterweight title is notable for just how clean it was, even if it felt like the UFC was slow-playing “The Nigerian Nightmare” in real time. With wins over fellow top prospects like Edwards, Warlley Alves and Sean Strickland, Usman had clearly separated himself as capable of outwrestling anyone in the division by 2017 and even attempted to make a statement by clearly hunting a quick knockout of Sergio Moraes. However, it took a bit longer for the UFC to actually pull the trigger on pushing Usman to title contention. It was not until 2019 that he finally got his shot at then-champ Tyron Woodley, and the ensuing dominant win made it clear that Usman was the best welterweight in the world. From there, Usman went on to have a dominant reign, showing a new level of striking in his first title fight against Colby Covington before defending the championship against Burns, Jorge Masvidal (twice) and then in a rematch against Covington. The second Covington fight suggested that Usman might be slowing down a bit—or at least that he might have lost some of the aggression that marked his best performances—but it was still a shock when he lost his title to Edwards, particularly since it came 24 minutes into what was looking to be a one-sided win. The rematch continued some of the narrative as far as Usman slipping, though it was most notable for Edwards’ increased effectiveness as a much more confident fighter.
With that backdrop, there is still some juice as far as Usman being viable in this fight against Chimaev, even if it still figures to be rough going. Usman’s wrestling chops are still as good as anyone’s, and it will be interesting to see how much additional strength he carries up at 185 pounds. The greater concern figures to center on Usman’s ability to take the initiative. As he has become a more well-rounded fighter, there is definitely a sense that Usman has been less interested in just marching forward and getting to the takedown game that brought him to the dance. It would be legitimately impressive if Chimaev got a quick and one-sided victory here, even with the late notice, but this still looks like a fight he can win over the long haul. Usman figures to be the one moving backwards; he should be game enough to not get blown out but still clearly wind up on the losing end of things. The hope is that this ends up as fun as Chimaev’s fight against Burns. The pick is Chimaev via decision.
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Chimaev vs. Usman
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The Prelims