Preview: UFC 284 ‘Makhachev vs. Volkanovski’

Interim UFC Featherweight Championship

#2 FW | Yair Rodriguez (14-3, 9-2 UFC) vs. #5 FW | Josh Emmett (18-2, 9-2 UFC)

ODDS: Rodriguez (-165), Emmett (+140)

Alexander Volkanovski’s challenge for the lightweight title leaves the featherweight championship picture temporarily up in the air, but at least this fight assures “Alexander The Great” is in for a fun matchup whenever he comes back down to 145 pounds. It has been a journey to this point for Rodriguez, who has simultaneously overachieved greatly while also taking longer than expected to make it to his first championship fight. Not much was expected of the first cast of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America” back in 2014, but it turned out to be an excellent crop of talent, with Rodriguez leading the way. “El Pantera” ran through the featherweight bracket and quickly established himself as the most exciting prospect in the division, blending violence and creativity at a level that few have achieved. Within short order, the UFC was all-in on Rodriguez potentially being the man to break open the Mexican market, and he was headlining cards against the likes of Alex Caceres and B.J. Penn in what were essentially showcase fights to help build his profile. Rodriguez got his big shot at moving into contender status in 2017 against Frankie Edgar, which is where things got derailed a bit. The fight itself was the last great performance of Edgar’s career, as he outwrestled Rodriguez and crushed him ahead of a doctor stoppage, but the situation truly went sideways in the aftermath. Rodriguez continually battled injuries for the better part of two years and kept backing out of fights, with the UFC’s frustration building to the point that it apparently briefly let him out of his contract. At any rate, everything got resolved and was quickly forgotten once Rodriguez landed one of the greatest knockouts in UFC history in his return. After five rounds of a fun fight against Chan Sung Jung, the South Korean’s final flurry saw him fall victim to a ridiculous back elbow at the literal final horn, earning Rodriguez an all-time improbable comeback win. Rodriguez has been frustratingly inactive in the ensuing years, but he has made his trips to the Octagon count in memorable fashion, winning an entertaining war against Jeremy Stephens, taking Max Holloway to the limit while losing a five-round battle and then winning a weird one against Brian Ortega in July. It fell a bit flat live, but Rodriguez caught Ortega in an armbar tight enough that the Californian dislocated his shoulder while attempting to escape. Even with the nature of that win, Rodriguez was put in the catbird seat for whatever came next with the featherweight crown. In this case, it is an interim title fight against Emmett.

It has been a slow seven-year march through the UFC ranks for Emmett, whose level of success does seem to still be a bit underappreciated. Emmett came to the UFC as a lightweight and had a solid but unmemorable three-fight run at 155 pounds before cutting down to featherweight for a 2017 fight against Felipe Arantes. It was almost immediately apparent that the move down would pay dividends for the Californian. Arantes survived to the final horn, but Emmett’s newfound power seemed to send his counterpart flying with every punch he threw. The showing was impressive enough that Emmett got a late-notice spot against then-top contender Ricardo Lamas, which served as even more of a proof of concept for him at featherweight. Emmett blasted Lamas for a brutal knockout in short order, making himself a going concern at 145 pounds after just two fights. Unfortunately, it looked like Emmett’s moment in the sun might end as quickly as it began. Some late-notice shuffling saw Emmett thrust into a main event spot against Stephens, losing via knockout while suffering multiple career-threatening facial fractures in the process. Shockingly, Emmett returned a shade over a year later and looked no worse for wear. His durability stayed intact against Michael Johnson, and while it took Emmett a bit of time to shake off the rust, he closed the show with an impressive third-round knockout. From there, it became apparent that Emmett was adding some new wrinkles to his game. Much of his approach still centers around swinging for the fences, but he has become more versatile in applying those weapons, mixing up his timing and showing the ability to be dangerous even in retreat. A 2020 win over Shane Burgos looked to be the peak of Emmett’s new evolution in terms of success and sheer violence, but it also came with its own unfortunate aftermath. Emmett somehow went through the entire fight with a torn ACL suffered in the opening minute, requiring another long layoff at a time that he could not seem to afford. However, Emmett has once again proven indestructible and picked up right where he left off, this time with decision wins over Dan Ige and Calvin Kattar. The Kattar victory in particular proved a bit controversial but also seemed to drive the point home: With Emmett’s ability to land knockout power at a pace for 25 minutes, he can beat anyone even if they fail to go down for the count.

The main event is clearly the best fight on the card, but this looks like the best bet to combine high-level fighting and entertaining violence, as this should be a war between two men durable enough to hang on for 25 minutes. This does figure to be Rodriguez’s fight to lose, as there are not many points of comparison among Emmett’s competition for what figures to be a tricky style matchup. Rodriguez has a massive advantage in terms of sheer speed and enough potency and creativity from range to pick apart the steadier approach from Emmett, particularly with his leg kicks. On the other hand, one of the aspects that makes Rodriguez’s fights so fun is that things are rarely quite that clean. Even when it can be ill-advised, part of Rodriguez’s approach inevitably includes some moments where he crashes into his opponent to try and land something new. So even if this turns into a clear Rodriguez win, it should be far from a shutout, as Emmett has enough versatility with his weapons to land some brutal shots on him when given the opportunity; and Rodriguez will provide plenty of opportunities. This would be a perfect time for Emmett to revert back to his wrestling. Despite coming from that background, he has not really pressed that part of his game since his lightweight fight against Scott Holtzman back in 2016. Outside of that, Rodriguez looks to have all the advantages. Beyond the reach and speed advantages, Rodriguez is more proven as a five-round fighter with a particularly inhuman level of cardio. While this is low on the list of potential tiebreakers, if it turns into a shot-for-shot battle between thudding hitters who have proven nigh-impossible to knock out, Emmett frankly does not wear cosmetic damage well, even if that has not cost him yet with the judges. This should be sometimes messy but always violent. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.

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Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Rodriguez vs. Emmett
Della Maddalena vs. Brown
Tafa vs. Porter
Crute vs. Menifield
The Prelims