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Middleweights
Caio Borralho (12-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Makhmud Muradov (25-7, 3-1 UFC)ODDS: Borralho (-200), Muradov (+170)
Two promising middleweights could each use an impressive showing. Through August 2021, the only worry for Uzbekistan’s Muradov seemed to be getting into the cage. “Mach” impressed greatly in each of his fights, but a lost 2020 that saw multiple fight cancellations seemed to dull most of his momentum. At his best, Muradov is a sniping boxer content to pick at his opponent from range; and while that can be frustrating to start, he has typically done an excellent job of finding his groove and closing the show in impressive fashion, including brutal third-round knockouts of Trevor Smith and Andrew Sanchez. Faced with another slow-footed grappler in Gerald Meerschaert, Muradov figured to do more of the same. However, that turn never came. Instead, it was Meerschaert who was able to pressure and throw Muradov out of his game, eventually scoring a second-round submission in one of the biggest upsets of 2021. That result halted what seemed to be an inevitable rise to contender status for Muradov. Combined with a 14-month layoff, that makes this a crucial fight against Borralho. Brazil’s Borralho needed two wins to earn a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021, but he was one of the standouts of the season. Over the course of those two fights, he proved himself to be a stout physical force capable of taking over a fight as both a powerful striker and a bullying wrestler. Through two UFC bouts, Borralho has certainly proven himself as a prospect, with dominant wins over Gadzhi Omargadzhiev and Armen Petrosyan, but both performances were extremely dull affairs that saw him focus on a control-heavy wrestling game that neutralized his counterparts. It is hard to argue much with Borralho taking the smart approach, but from an entertainment standpoint, the bad news is that the smart approach once again looks to be for him to focus on a wrestling-heavy gameplan. This is trickier than Borralho’s last two fights—Muradov is faster on the feet and a much more potent knockout artist—but he should at least be able to hang with Muradov on the feet for a bit and also appears to be quick enough with his takedowns to take things to the mat and lock things down. The third round could be a huge concern for Borralho if the Brazilian does not find a finish beforehand. Borralho fights well through exhaustion but still does obviously tire late, and Muradov is a strong three-round performer. Nevertheless, this looks like another fight where the favorite can win a grind. The pick is Borralho via decision.
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