Welterweights
NR | Francisco Trinaldo (27-8, 17-7 UFC) vs. NR | Danny Roberts (18-5, 7-4 UFC)He certainly looks to be slowing down, but Trinaldo is still shockingly effective at 43 years old. A fan favorite and already well into his 30s on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” Trinaldo looked to be a solid but relatively one-dimensional fighter early in his UFC career proper. “Massaranduba” had the powerful frame to overwhelm some opponents and crank on a submission, but he would lose his effectiveness against stronger wrestlers and grapplers. After a few years of fighting at a high level and earning comparatively better UFC paychecks, Trinaldo was able to put in the work to become a surprisingly effective striker capable of plugging his opponents with some powerful counters. That resulted in a seven-fight winning streak that was eventually ended by Kevin Lee in 2017, and Trinaldo has spent the ensuing few years as a gatekeeper to the rankings at both lightweight and welterweight—his new weight class as of 2021. Trinaldo’s patient approach always walked a tightrope, so his margin for victory is getting even thinner as he slows down in his older age, but the Brazilian still figures to be an obstacle for Roberts. England’s Roberts has had a solid UFC career thus far, but things have not truly clicked for “Hot Chocolate.” A sharp boxer with some solid grappling skills, Roberts looks amazing against opponents beneath a certain level but usually either quickly gets overwhelmed or slowly takes himself out of the fight against stronger competition. That was why it was nice to see Roberts score a June win over Ramazan Emeev. A consistent neutralizer with a strength advantage, Emeev was the type of opponent that had troubled Roberts in the past, only this time the Englishman had enough effective striking to narrowly get the nod on the scorecards. Roberts could follow a similar path to victory here, but it is a bit worrying that he essentially matched Emeev’s slow pace. If he does the same against Trinaldo, the difference in this fight is that the Brazilian is an effective enough striker to crack Roberts hard in his moments of offense, which could be enough to either win rounds or score the knockout outright. This figures to have slow-paced split decision written all over it, so this is essentially a coinflip.
FEELY'S PREDICTION: The Brazilian is still more reliable at this point and will likely get the pace he wants, so the pick is Trinaldo via decision.
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