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Bantamweights
#5 BW | Jose Aldo (29-7, 11-6 UFC) vs. #9 BW | Pedro Munhoz (19-5, 9-5 UFC)ODDS: Aldo (-110), Munhoz (-110)
For as ill-advised as Aldo’s cut down to bantamweight seemed to be to this in the know, things have worked out well for the former featherweight great, even if it remains unclear where he stands in his new division at the moment. Aldo was an absolutely dominant champion at 145 pounds until Conor McGregor happened, and the worry was that after two very similar losses to Max Holloway, his tight and defensive style had been figured out by a new generation of featherweights. However, Aldo proved that he was not done yet. Now competing in three-round fights for the first time in ages, he discovered some of his old finishing form, throwing down and knocking out Jeremy Stephens and Renato Carneiro. Even so, another loss to Alexander Volkanovski gave Aldo a clear ceiling at featherweight. As a result, the Brazilian legend announced his long-awaited move out of the weight class, but instead of the expected move up to lightweight, he announced that he would somehow try and cut down to 135 pounds. Aesthetically, it looked rough to see Aldo so drawn, but he held up as a fighter, even if he has changed his approach a bit at bantamweight. With his additional size advantage, Aldo became more of a bully in his bantamweight debut opposite Marlon Moraes, and while that did not result in his getting the victory, it still somehow led him to a title shot. Then-champion Henry Cejudo wanted to face the biggest name possible and the UFC figured that having Aldo challenge for the title in Brazil would sell the most tickets, so the fight was made even with the Nova Uniao star coming off of a loss. Then the coronavirus pandemic happened. Cejudo wound up beating Dominick Cruz and announcing his retirement, and Aldo was still grandfathered into the slot as top contender, fighting Petr Yan for the vacant belt. Aldo put in a game effort before fading and getting finished by Yan late, but he rebounded with a win over Marlon Vera in December. The loss in his chance against Yan makes it unclear exactly where Aldo stands in the pecking order as a title contender, but his name value makes his path back to contender status a bit easier than others—as already evidenced by his scrapped bout against Cejudo. At any rate, he will look to get a winning streak going against Munhoz.
After a slow start to his UFC career—due to some tough matchmaking and issues with the United States Anti-Doping Agency—Munhoz has spent the last few years slowly rising through the bantamweight ranks. “The Young Punisher,” somehow the older man in this matchup by two days, quickly made a name for himself as a venomous submission artist once his UFC career got going, racking up three guillotine chokes during a four-fight winning streak from 2016 to 2017. That was on the back of a simple but effective approach, as Munhoz looked to pressure forward and throw volume at his opponent, banking on his durability and the hope that his opponent would eventually panic and shoot for a takedown, at which point he could latch on one of those guillotine chokes. For as simple as the calculus seemed to be on paper, opponents had difficulty staying elusive enough to actually follow that game plan, even though John Dodson managed to stall Munhoz’s rise in 2018. After the Dodson loss, Munhoz picked up right back where he left off and was more successful than ever, a first-round knockout in a slugfest against Cody Garbrandt putting the Brazilian into true contender status. Since then, Munhoz has hit a bit of a wall. Aljamain Sterling put in a strong performance that took advantage of his lanky frame, and a main event turn opposite Frankie Edgar resulted in “The Answer” putting on a surprisingly mobile performance to win the narrowest of split decisions. Once again, Munhoz seems to have rebounded from adversity with some career-best form, avenging a 2015 loss to Jimmie Rivera in impressively dominant fashion in February. Now he gets a huge chance opposite Aldo, and a win would add his name to an already-crowded top of the bantamweight division.
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This should be a fascinating fight, particularly in terms of how Aldo’s new style at bantamweight fares against his most aggressive opponent yet. Again, the path to beating Munhoz has never been to meet him head-on. Dodson, Sterling and Edgar all had success mostly staying out of dodge and outmaneuvering Munhoz’s fairly straightforward pressure. While Aldo has proven more than capable of fighting a defense-first style during his days at featherweight, it has not been a particularly evasive style. Instead, Aldo operated mostly by disincentivizing his opponents’ weapons with strong counters—an approach that served the additional purpose of keeping the fight at a slow pace where he could best manage his energy. Even if Aldo reverts to that approach, it is unclear how well it will work against Munhoz. Holloway essentially broke Aldo’s system by continuing to throw out volume and ignoring the consequences, and Munhoz seems to have a similar combination of ridiculous durability and unbreakable confidence that may just ignore all the lessons that his fellow Brazilian is trying to teach. This basically comes down to how much you want to bet on there being levels to fighting and that Aldo, one of the all-time technical greats of the sport, can adapt enough to take care of a tough challenge. The pick is Munhoz via decision.
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