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The Future is bright for @MayceeBarber!!

What a finish! #UFCBoston pic.twitter.com/0yt59JK7lm

— UFC (@ufc) October 19, 2019

Women’s Flyweight

#15 | Alexa Grasso (12-3, 4-3 UFC) vs. #10 | Maycee Barber (8-1, 3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Grasso (-130), Barber (+110)

When Grasso was signed by the UFC in 2016, she figured to be a large part of the promotion’s efforts to break into Mexico, thanks to her marketable look and an exciting fighting style that figured to lead her to contention. That has not quite happened—yet. While Grasso is typically featured whenever the UFC heads South of the Border, she has not quite made the leap from frustrating talent to reliable upper-tier fighter. After an impressive debut against Heather Jo Clark, the situation quickly went sideways for Grasso. Felice Herrig was in the obvious position of veteran steppingstone from a matchmaking perspective, but she managed to outbox Grasso on her way to an upset victory. From there, it has been equal parts promise and frustration for Grasso, as her 2019 win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz was the only clear victory of her strawweight run. Tatiana Suarez absolutely ran through Grasso on the mat, and fights against Randa Markos and Carla Esparza were mixed bags. Grasso had her moments, but both fights saw wild momentum swings, as she was unable to stay in control of either bout. After some weight cut issues, Grasso has apparently decided to make a full-time move up to flyweight, and the results of her 125-pound debut against Ji Yeon Kim were interesting. Grasso did not look much different physically and got by on a considerable speed advantage that should serve her well against larger and slower opponents. However, Barber should be a tough next test.

Potential is the name of the game for Barber, who earned a UFC contract less than two months after her 20th birthday in 2018. Barber mostly gets by on her youth and her strength, which came through early in her UFC career, as the promotion did well to match her with opponents against whom she had a clear physical advantage. While she has yet to become particularly technical, she has shown an ability to fight back from adversity. J.J. Aldrich teed off on her early, so it was a good sign when Barber managed to recompose herself and march down Aldrich for an eventual finish. However, her 2020 bout against Roxanne Modafferi laid a lot of issues bare. It figured to be another steppingstone fight where Barber could run over one of the worst athletes on the UFC roster, but instead, it turned into a stunning Modafferi upset victory. Some of that was due to the torn ACL Barber suffered early in the second round, but the fight played out the same both before and after the injury. Modafferi had a surprising amount of success hitting Barber on the feet, while her experience and technical acumen managed to nullify Barber’s sheer horsepower more often than not. Barber has spent the ensuing year recovering from the injury, and it will be interesting to see how she has put the time to use. Still just 22 years old, she has plenty of time to develop.

This is essentially a proof-of-concept fight for Grasso at 125 pounds, at least for now. She appears to have made the choice to prioritize speed over power in her new division, and if ever there was a fight where that trade-off would work, it would be this one. Grasso should be able to take this for as long as it remains on the feet. Even if Barber has some thudding power, Grasso has historically been quite durable and should be able to nail Barber with multiple punches for each one that she can land in return. The worry for Grasso is found in the clinch and wrestling exchanges. While Grasso had her moments on the mat against Markos and Esparza, Barber is much more of a physical force and willing to throw a lot more offense from the top. Given that Barber’s approach is based much more on horsepower than technique, Grasso getting stifled would be a bad omen for her ability to hang physically at the contender level at 125 pounds. Of course, the issue for Barber is that she actually has to be able to track down and catch Grasso. Perhaps her striking shows up better after some time off, but she is starting from a particularly low point, especially when it comes to defense. Add in some concerns that Grasso, even as a converted strawweight, might be the best athlete Barber has faced to date, and it becomes easier to see the Lobo Gym standout defending things in Barber’s realm and fighting her kind of fight rather than the other way around. The pick is Grasso via decision.

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