Preview: UFC 249 ‘Ferguson vs. Gaethje’

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UFC Bantamweight Championship

Henry Cejudo (15-2) vs. Dominick Cruz (22-2)

ODDS: Cejudo (-225), Cruz (+185)

In a weird way, it does feel like this career peak for Cejudo is not living up to its potential. Think back to a decade ago or so, when the UFC’s star-making apparatus was much more finely honed. If the company had been handed a Mexican-American fighter who worked his way out of poverty to become an Olympic gold medalist and two-division MMA champion, he would be a prominent and beloved star, right? Things were going well enough for Cejudo’s first few years inside of the UFC; he could come off a bit phony at times, but he consistently improved from fight to fight and remained a fun and generally likable fighter. However, what should have been Cejudo's crowning moment—a controversial upset of longtime UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson—wound up being where the situation went off the rails, at least from a promotional standpoint. Rather than build around Cejudo, the UFC instead saw this as an opportunity to tear down the flyweight division, with then-bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw being sent down to take the crown from Cejudo and essentially shutter activities at 125 pounds. Things once again went sideways, even after Cejudo dispatched of Dillashaw in under a minute. The obvious move was Cejudo moving up to 135 pounds to try and beat Dillashaw once again, this time for double gold. However, Dillashaw failed his drug test for the fight, and Cejudo instead won a vacant title from Marlon Moraes in an excellent match that did not have much promotional heat. Cejudo then needed surgery, leaving both of his championship divisions in limbo, and he has not done much to improve his promotional stock. What was initially a “King of Cringe” gimmick that was strange enough to be mildly interesting has devolved into more typical and ineffective trash talk, and Cejudo has also been in the strange position of trying to hunt big-money fights where there really are none. Flyweight and bantamweight, as they are currently constituted in the UFC, are divisions meant for the hardcore fight fan, and while there are plenty of interesting and diverse style matchups, there is not much in the way of star power. While Cejudo has been more focused on the biggest names rather than the best fights, it left him matched with Jose Aldo and now Cruz—former champions who never meant much to the casual fan at the box office and now represent disappointing options for the core fanbase when more deserving contenders are available. On the bright side, things did figure to get weird in the current climate, so there is something to be said about embracing the strange and going with it. If nothing else, it will be strange to actually see Cruz inside the Octagon.

Cruz’s last fight was the UFC 207 co-main event in 2016, which means that then-headliner Ronda Rousey has actually fought more recently than the former bantamweight champion. Things were going well enough for Cruz all the way back in 2012. He had come over from World Extreme Cagefighting to be crowned the UFC’s first bantamweight champ and successfully defended his belt twice before coaching “The Ultimate Fighter” opposite career rival Urijah Faber. However, Cruz tore his ACL over the course of the season, and it has been a rollercoaster ride ever since. The next three and a half years saw Cruz suffer some of the cruelest injury luck in the history of the sport. First, his body apparently rejected the cadaver ACL that was initially used in his surgery, requiring a second surgery that would sideline Cruz for a second year. Upon training for his comeback fight against Renan Barao in early 2014, Cruz suffered a torn groin, taking him out of action once again. However, “The Dominator” did make his way to the cage by the end of 2014, earning an uncharacteristically brutal knockout of Takeya Mizugaki in 61 seconds to establish himself as the top contender to Dillashaw’s throne. Naturally, Cruz tore his ACL once again—this time in his other knee—and missed all of 2015. All of that set up what is likely the greatest comeback in the history of the sport, as Cruz, with all of 61 seconds of cage time over the previous four years, stepped up and dethroned Dillashaw upon his return. Cruz did not appear to have lost a step, which is extremely impressive given the unorthodox and movement-heavy style on which he has always relied. Cruz made it through the rest of the year, closing his rivalry with Faber with a successful title defense before shockingly losing the strap to Cody Garbrandt. Since then, he has spent another three-plus years on the disabled list, this time due to a series of arm and shoulder injuries. On the one hand, it seems a bit absurd that Cruz returns to wind up right back in the title picture, but it is appropriate in its own way that he gets to try and top his own all-time great comeback from injury.

If Cruz pulls this off, it may actually top his last comeback win against Dillashaw. Cejudo is an odd duck of a fighter. He obviously has the Olympic-level wrestling on which to fall back, and he has worked hard to improve his striking over the years, but his win against Moraes has shown that he might be at his best when he decides to just eat damage, charge forward and try to destroy his opponent. Frankly, it is difficult to see Cruz having an answer for that. Cruz could have some success early with his movement-heavy and herky-jerky striking style since Cejudo does not possess the quick-trigger counters that Garbrandt used to such great effect, but the former champion is not much of a finisher; and it feels like Cejudo will have to consent to that type of fight over five rounds in order to give up the belt. Cejudo has already shown the ability to adapt and hunt for the finish if things wind up going poorly, so in broad strokes, this feels a lot like the Moraes fight. Cruz could frustrate Cejudo early, but whenever Cejudo decides to make things ugly, he should be able to chase down “The Dominator” and cause a great deal of pain. That is without even mentioning the wrestling that Cejudo always has in his back pocket. Add in whatever wear and rust that Cruz may have coming into the cage, and this could get ugly whenever the tide turns in the fight, even if it may take some time. The pick is Cejudo via third-round stoppage.

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