UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship
C | Weili Zhang (20-1) vs. #4 WSW | Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-3)Advertisement
Chinese mixed martial arts has improved tremendously over the last few years, but on Aug. 31, it truly arrived on the global scene. That was the night of the UFC’s debut in Shenzhen, China, and while the promotion got some criticism for rushing Zhang into a main event for the women’s strawweight title against Jessica Andrade, the she quieted the doubters in short order by running through Andrade in just 42 seconds. It was a definitive victory, but given that it was just 13 months into Zhang’s UFC career, it still left the strawweight champion as a bit of a mystery. Zhang is obviously a powerhouse for 115 pounds. While her pre-UFC career was not against the strongest competition, she ran over her opponents with a rare quickness and violence for a woman her size—something that continued against adversaries like Andrade and Jessica Aguilar, who went out of their way to test her. However, the only real representative sample for Zhang’s game at a high level is her win a year ago over Tecia Torres, which showed some clearer strengths and weaknesses. Torres has her own issues, namely a small frame for strawweight, but Zhang showed off her impressive physicality whenever the two decided to lock up. While Zhang was still winning the fight on the feet, that part of her game was a bit iffier, as she was content to throw wild strikes and a lot of spinning kicks that hit hard when they connected but were not particularly accurate. There is plenty to like about Zhang. She is certainly a better technical fighter than Andrade, who made her own way to the title through sheer physicality. Zhang’s title win alone has made her hugely important to the UFC already, but there is still a way to go before she proves she can be a dominant champion instead of an elite perennial contender. A lot of questions will hopefully be answered in her first title defense against Jedrzejczyk.
Until late 2017, the strawweight division essentially belonged to Jedrzejczyk. Carla Esparza was the first champion for the UFC, but Jedrzejczyk demolished her shortly thereafter and continued on to a dominant reign. The beginning stretches of Jedrzejczyk’s title reign, namely the win over Esparza and a brutal beatdown of Jessica Penne, brought a violence rarely seen in women’s MMA and immediately established the charismatic Pole as a hardcore favorite. From there, Jedrzejczyk’s status as a buzzsaw dried up a little, but her title wins typically consisted of dominant round after dominant round, as opponents were barely able to touch her as they got picked apart. Then Rose Namajunas happened. Heading into their bout at UFC 217, the conventional wisdom was that Jedrzejczyk would earn yet another win and essentially clean out the division, but it instead resulted in a shocking loss. Not only was this the bout where Namajunas’ talents finally clicked, but Jedrzejczyk also had significant issues defending a long opponent that she could not keep out of range. That was true in the knockout that cost Jedrzejczyk the belt and the ensuing rematch. That has highlighted a clear pattern in Jedrzejczyk’s fights, as she has found success usually by being longer or stronger than her opponents. Against a tank like Andrade, she managed to pick apart her challenger from range, and most of her other fights have seen her leverage either her strength or her size in the clinch. A one-off move to flyweight against Valentina Shevchenko, who commanded their fight without much issue, has cooled Jedrzejczyk’s momentum a bit, but Namajunas remains the only woman to beat her at 115 pounds. The former champ still has a lot left in the tank, but there is still a chance that this fight is the bellwether that the division has started to pass Jedrzejczyk by.
It is rare for a champion to be as unproven in the moment as Zhang, so this fight is supremely fascinating. In retrospect, Andrade figured to be the perfect opponent to make Zhang look good. The Brazilian has relied on aggression and durability over any sort of defense, so it is no surprise that Zhang tagged her hard; the surprise is more that Andrade went down so quickly. If Zhang can hit Jedrzejczyk that cleanly, it figures to be a similar story. Can she? Zhang can cause some damage if this goes to the clinch that Jedrzejczyk has often relied upon herself, but if the former champion decides to dust off her own game plan against Andrade and keep this at range, it remains unclear if Zhang will be able to close that distance. If anything, Zhang seems content to acquiesce to such a fight if her opponent does not charge in. Again, the Torres fight featured a whole lot of inefficient and flashy kicks. Jedrzejczyk may have to walk a bit of a tightrope here—again, Zhang can connect with a ton of power and there is a chance of things going downhill quickly if she does—but this feels like the American Top Team standout’s fight to lose. That is even without factoring in some of the ex-factors around this fight, such as Zhang never fighting past three rounds and enduring a tough camp full of constant travel due to issues with the coronavirus. Zhang is enough of a talent that it would not be a complete shock to see her adapt quickly and put this away within two rounds, but it is difficult to pick against the more proven commodity. The pick is Jedrzejczyk via decision.
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