Women’s Bantamweights
Holly Holm (12-5) vs. Raquel Pennington (10-7)ODDS: Holm (-135), Pennington (+115)
Holm’s 2015 upset of Ronda Rousey will go down as one of the signature moments in mixed martial arts history, but it is worth remembering just how close it came to not happening, as “The Preacher’s Daughter” needed a split decision win over Raquel Pennington in her UFC debut to get there. It has been a strange run for Holm since, as she has retained all the glow from that victory despite not having much in the way of positive results in the ensuing four years. Holm has always been a frustrating prospect. While she knocked out opponents on the regional scene, the step up in competition that started with Pennington exposed her as a passive and not particularly powerful striker, despite a decorated boxing career and some high-level athleticism. In fact, the Rousey fight stands out as an outlier, as the Olympic bronze medalist’s willingness to charge directly into danger made her the perfect opponent to get hit in the face over and over by whatever Holm threw her way. After beating Rousey, it was back to the frustrating version of Holm. Her last few years of fights have not been particularly exciting, and she has only won twice in her last seven outings. On the plus side, Holm was always competitive and never got blown out through the first six of those bouts. However, after Amanda Nunes needed less than a round to knock her out, there is some question about exactly where Holm goes from here. For now, the answer is a rematch with Pennington.
The loss to Holm was the beginning of a coming-out party for Pennington, who quietly went from one of the more underrated fighters on the UFC roster to a title contender over the next few years. Pennington has historically been better than her record suggests thanks to a rough start, but she eventually complemented her toughness with a rugged and well-rounded style. Keeping things close against Holm represented a bit of a breakthrough performance, and “Rocky” managed to rattle off four straight wins after that setbacks, capping the streak with a decision win over Miesha Tate. From there, everything went sideways. The win over Tate put Pennington in title contention, but she subsequently nearly lost her leg in an ATV accident. After an 18-month layoff, Pennington made her comeback, but as the top contender by default, she was immediately thrown to the wolves against Nunes, who laid a methodical beatdown on her challenger on route to a fifth-round finish. Pennington has thankfully looked better in recent fights, but even with all her improvements over the years, she still has a clear ceiling due to her lack of athleticism. However, in a division as thin as women’s bantamweight, Pennington also has a clear floor, and since she finds herself in much the same boat as Holm, this rematch was sensible.
Neither fighter has a style that takes over fights, so it is hard to be inspired about this one either way. Their first fight saw Pennington eventually adjust to Holm’s movement-heavy style and counter her strikes, and there is no reason she cannot pull the same trick here. Even if Pennington is probably the more improved fighter since that bout five years ago, the most important change since is likely the improvement in Holm’s clinch game, which offered some refuge for Pennington that she will not have the second time around. Even if Holm finds herself getting hit, she should be able to control a lot of this fight against the cage as the much more powerful fighter. Again, it is difficult to have much confidence in either fighter doing enough to overwhelm her opponent, but Holm’s strength and athleticism give her an advantage on paper. It may not be pretty to watch and it may not be all that convincing, but the pick is for Holm to once again take a decision victory.
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