Lightweights
Edson Barboza (20-7) vs. Paul Felder (16-4)
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Does Barboza have one more run up the lightweight ladder left in him? It is a bit odd to think of Barboza as an erstwhile veteran, given how young and inexperienced he was when the UFC signed him a decade ago. At a time when the UFC was still waiting for fighters to marinate before putting them on the roster, Barboza was signed just a year and a half into his pro career; and he hit the ground running, as he rattled off four straight wins and showed off one of the most vicious kicking arsenals in the sport, capping that streak of victories with an all-time highlight spinning wheel kick knockout of Terry Etim. However, Jamie Varner of all people then managed to blitz Barboza and finish him early, and that was when the book started being written on the Brazilian, who began gaining the reputation as a frontrunner. Over the last few years, Barboza has done much better to not cave under pressure, but there is still a clear style that beats him. Aggressive opponents have successfully managed to force Barboza to retreat, as he is not comfortable planting and throwing his kicks in the face of constant volume. He can still smoke an overmatched athlete -- Dan Hooker mostly just plodded straight forward into tons of abuse at the hands and feet of Barboza -- but a quick loss to Justin Gaethje in March was the clearest example yet of an opponent marching down the former Ring of Combat champion and finding success. Barboza almost surely is what he is at this stage of his career, but if he strings together two or three wins, his exciting fight style will always allow him to jump the line to an extent. Up first on this latest campaign back up the divisional ladder: a rematch with Felder.
While a fun fight, their 2015 encounter was in retrospect matchmaking malpractice. The UFC has a tendency to rush its prospects, and Felder going from a knockout win over a fading Danny Castillo to a then-ascendant Barboza was a pretty clear example of that mode of operation. In fact, there was a point in early 2016 where Felder was in danger of sliding off the roster completely. If not for Daron Cruickshank going for an ill-advised takedown that allowed “The Irish Dragon” to turn around their fight, Felder could easily be plying his trade elsewhere. Instead, he stayed afloat enough to develop into a top lightweight and fan favorite, in part thanks to his status as an affable color commentator. Funnily enough, while Felder initially came into the UFC best known for his spinning strikes, he has had his best success as a clinch fighter, using that aspect of his game to procure finishes of Steven Ray and Charles Oliveira. Felder’s most recent appearance -- a win over James Vick at UFC on ESPN 1 in February -- saw him put on one of the better performances of his career, frustrating Vick with leg kicks and generally showing a surgical precision that had not previously been part of his game. That has earned him a major opportunity here, both in terms of card placement and an ability to show how much he has improved over the last four years.
Felder is a much more refined fighter, but it is difficult to see where he has the advantage over Barboza. Felder showed some much better range skills against Vick, but it remains unclear what use they will be in this rematch, as going leg kick for leg kick in a distance striking battle against Barboza seems unadvisable. Felder’s typical advantage is in the clinch, and there is a chance it can serve him well here, but this feels a lot more like Barboza’s fight against Dan Hooker than any of his recent losses. Felder just does not seem quick enough to keep up if Barboza decides to start picking him apart upon his entries; and even if Felder gets inside, Barboza’s a strong enough athlete that he may be able to shuck him off anyway. The good news is that Felder should hang tough throughout the fight and make it an entertaining affair, but the pick is Barboza via decision.
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