UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship
Valentina Shevchenko (16-3) vs. Jessica Eye (14-6)Advertisement
When the UFC launched its women’s strawweight division, it got off to a great start. A tournament ended in an inaugural title fight between the favored Carla Esparza and top prospect Rose Namajunas before Esparza gave way to the dominant reign of Joanna Jedrzejczyk. The launch of the women’s flyweight division has not gone nearly as well. First, the inaugural tournament field was not particularly strong and looked even worse once relative unknowns Sijara Eubanks and Nicco Montano made their way to the end of the bracket. From there, weight issues took Eubanks out of the inaugural title fight, and after Montano beat Roxanne Modafferi to become champion, injuries and weight-cut issues eventually led the UFC to strip Montano of the belt. It was left to Shevchenko to stabilize the UFC’s newest division, and for better or for worse, she seems up for the job. Since debuting with a win over Sarah Kaufman in 2015, Shevchenko has established herself as one of the top fighters in any weight class on the distaff side of the sport, but despite all her skills, her fighting style is not particularly inspiring. Shevchenko is notoriously risk-averse, and while it was impressive to see her pick apart Holly Holm as her depth of skill became apparent, once she became a known quantity, it resulted in some terrible fights, most notably her title challenge against Amanda Nunes at 135 pounds. Shevchenko had nearly beaten a gassed Nunes a year and a half prior, and with the bantamweight champ obviously preserving her gas tank, Shevchenko responded by simply not doing much of anything. Even a tiny bit of volume would have won rounds -- what little she did was almost enough to win the fight anyway -- but the core passivity to Shevchenko’s style was fully on display, as she coasted her way to a loss and then complained about the judging afterwards. The situation looks better now that “Bullet” has cut down to flyweight. She ran over Priscila Cachoeira in what was essentially a squash match, but in the bout that saw her earn the vacant title, Jedrzejczyk kept her honest enough that Shevchenko was forced to use the full depth of her skills to score a one-sided win. What now? The women’s flyweight division is in a weird spot, as it is comprised of all veterans from other weight classes at the moment with very few rising prospects. As a result, Shevchenko does not have any intriguing challengers knocking at the door, but it could still be interesting to see her show off her wares against overmatched competition.
Thus far, Eye is a big winner in the UFC’s starting a women’s flyweight division. Eye has been a punchline for years, due mostly to her ability to get the absolute least out of her talents. Moment to moment, Eye’s individual skills look quite sharp, but they have never coalesced into a coherent whole, as she would either be too aggressive or too passive at all the wrong times and build to what would usually become a decision loss. Heading into 2018, Eye had lost her last four fights, but since cutting down to flyweight, everything has changed -- at least on the surface. Eye’s fight IQ may have gotten nominally better, but the main difference is that with the additional physicality, everything is just much more effective. Her punches land harder and her wrestling game is suddenly much stronger when she chooses to pull it out. Now riding a three-fight winning streak, Eye is actually a deserving contender, and while that probably says more about how the division has yet to sort out itself than anything else, it is still a turnaround that is nice to see.
Eye winning this would represent one of the bigger upsets in UFC history, as it is difficult to tell where she has an advantage. Eye’s boxing is fine, but she is facing a striker known for her precision; and as effective as Eye’s wrestling has been at flyweight, Shevchenko is every bit as strong and likely even more violent if things go to the clinch. Given that Eye is not much of a knockout artist, a finish seems unlikely. It may sound cliche, but the only person in this division who can beat Shevchenko looks like Shevchenko herself -- if she gets too passive, becomes content to win occasional exchanges and gives away rounds. However, Eye has historically had the same problem, so it is impossible to count on the challenger any more than the champion. The pick is Shevchenko via decision.
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