UFC Interim Middleweight Championship
Kelvin Gastelum (15-3) vs. Israel Adesanya (16-0)ODDS: Adesanya (-170), Gastelum (+150)
At a time when the UFC is signing prospects earlier than ever and running so many events that nobody stands out, it says a ton when someone like Adesanya can hit the ground running and immediately become a breakthrough star. It was only 14 months ago that Adesanya made his debut, and thanks to rapid turnarounds between fights, a flashy fighting style and a whole lot of swagger, “The Last Stylebender” has put himself among the middleweight elite, both in terms of talent and profile. In his pre-UFC fights, Adesanya was a ridiculously exciting striker due to his kickboxing background, but as someone who tended to out-athlete his way out of tough situations on the ground, there was some concern about how his defensive wrestling would translate up a level. Those concerns surfaced early -- Rob Wilkinson managed to control Adesanya for the first round of their fight, and Marvin Vettori enjoyed similar if inconsistent success -- but within months, Adesanya was mostly shutting down whatever Brad Tavares and Derek Brunson threw his way and dictating the terms of the fight. After his breakout 2018 campaign, the UFC matched Adesanya with Anderson Silva in a passing-of-the-torch moment that was more memorable for its weirdness than any sort of impressive performance. With that raising Adesanya’s name value a bit, it was time for him to become a true contender, and with Robert Whittaker temporarily sidelined due to injury, Gastelum was the obvious choice for Adesanya’s next test.
Over the years, Gastelum has gone from a bit of an overachiever to someone who tends to coast on his natural talent. The former narrative owes a bit to how Gastelum came through the UFC, as he was on the same season of “The Ultimate Fighter” as Uriah Hall, who captured imaginations with his run of brutal finishes on the show. However, in the final, it was the unheralded Gastelum who scored a decision win to derail that hype train. To its credit, the UFC quickly realized that it had a talented young Mexican-American prospect at a time when Mexico was becoming a priority, so soon, Gastelum was getting prominent fights, mostly rising to the level of some tough challenges. It was not pretty, but it is still impressive in retrospect that Gastelum managed to beat Rick Story less than a year into his UFC career. Weight cutting issues soon reared their ugly head, however, and despite his success, the narrative shifted to Gastelum being someone who has not been able to maximize his talent. Since essentially being forced up to middleweight, Gastelum has looked better, with two caveats: (1) He has mostly been fed a diet of aging legends like Vitor Belfort and Michael Bisping, and (2) it is also hard to place exactly how Gastelum has evolved over the years. He has gotten a little bit better as a pressure fighter, but he has mostly just relied on his quick hands and toughness to see him through fights rather than pressing any sort of advantage. Gastelum earned a title shot against Whittaker with a win over Ronaldo Souza -- he, too, fits into that aging legends category, even if he is still relevant as a contender -- but that was scrapped due to the champion’s injury in February. Adesanya-Silva becoming the main event of that card led to a natural discussion of Gastelum facing the winner with Whittaker out, so this was the fight to make.
Gastelum is dangerous and talented, but on paper this looks like a solid Adesanya win unless “The Ultimate Fighter 17” winner has suddenly become a much more practiced and prepared fighter. If Gastelum goes all-out with his pressure game, he has been a good enough wrestler that he can give Adesanya some fits; and while Adesanya’s defensive wrestling has improved by leaps and bounds from fight to fight, he can still be controlled. Even if Gastelum cannot get takedowns, keeping Adesanya on the defensive alone has its own benefits, as he is at his best when given time to pick and choose his shots. Unfortunately for Gastelum, his pressure is inconsistent enough that he is probably going to give Adesanya that space to feel comfortable. He has none of Silva’s defensive weirdness, which kept Adesanya out of a rhythm, and his wrestling is not as explosive Brunson’s. If anything, this looks like a tougher version of the Tavares fight for Adesanya, where he managed to see everything coming and react as he felt the need. Even if Gastelum does pressure, his gas tank is not exactly stellar, so he would need to get Adesanya out of there within a round or two, which also does not look like a strong possibility. This is a fun fight and the right fight, but the pick is Adesanya via third-round knockout.
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