Middleweights
Chris Weidman (14-3) vs. Ronaldo Souza (25-6)Advertisement
It has been a strange few years for Weidman. Anderson Silva’s middleweight title run became so legendary that whoever took the championship from him figured to become an instant superstar; that never quite happened for Weidman. For one, the nature of Weidman’s two wins over Silva did not make for a clean transition. Even though Weidman was handily winning both fights, he won the first when Silva got overconfident with his taunting and then took the rematch when “The Spider” accidentally shattered his leg. After that rough start, Weidman’s title reign never really got out of the gate. The Long Islander is a fairly bland personality, and things were not helped by a constant string of injuries that saw Weidman have about as many scrapped bouts as title defenses. Weidman’s title loss to Luke Rockhold ended in an extended beatdown, and that seemed to send his career into a downward spiral. There were still the injuries, and on the rare instances when Weidman would appear, he would look just a bit slower and a whole lot less durable; the Rockhold loss was the beginning of a three-fight losing streak. Weidman got off the schneid back home on Long Island, where he used his still-potent wrestling game to bull around Kelvin Gastelum. However, whatever momentum it gave Weidman has been lost due to yet another injury layoff. Even so, with Gastelum now the top middleweight contender, Weidman kind of has to be close to a title shot himself. First things first: He needs a win here, and an injury to Rockhold did not give Weidman an easier opponent, as he faces fellow contender “Jacare” Souza.
Nearing 39 years old, the window is probably shut for Souza to finally get a UFC title shot, which is a disappointment. “Jacare” has perennially been on the fringes of the middleweight title picture, but Weidman’s constant injuries, Michael Bisping’s strategic title defenses and some ill-timed losses for Souza all conspired to keep the Brazilian from getting over the hump. While he still ranks among the 185-pound elite, there have finally been signs of slippage in the last year-plus, with both his athleticism and chin going from excellent to merely pretty good. The shame of it all is that a win here should put Souza right back in contention for a title shot, but his two recent losses have come to Robert Whittaker and Gastelum, meaning whoever wins their upcoming title fight has already proven he can beat “Jacare.” Souza’s game still works extremely well -- his recent tooling of Derek Brunson was confirmation, and he had a ton of good moments early while grappling with Gastelum -- but now more than ever, time is working against him.
Even with both men on the downswing, this is still quite a matchup, particularly since it pits two of the middleweight division’s best grapplers against each other. I do have to favor Souza here. Despite being four and a half years older, the Brazilian has been aging better than Weidman, as he still looks like the quicker fighter and seems to have more durability. At this point, Weidman’s main weapon is going to be that strong wrestling, which remains a good ace in the hole. He is still powerful enough that he might just be able to hold down “Jacare” for three rounds despite all of Souza’s other advantages; plus, Weidman has enough grappling ability to prevent himself from being submitted. While it is not like anyone looks to go to the ground with Souza, his takedown defense still seems solid enough that he can keep this fight standing more often than not. From there, he should be able to pick apart Weidman, who has never been the best fit for the movement-heavy striking style he tries to pull off. The pick is Souza via decision.
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