Heavyweights
Francis Ngannou (11-2) vs. Derrick Lewis (19-5, 1 N/C)
Odds: Ngannou (-380), Lewis (+315)
Seeing these two climb into the cage together is going to be breathtaking. As Ngannou and Lewis concurrently climbed the ranks and knocked people into next week, fans clambered for them to be matched up together. But the stars didn’t quite align. Lewis’ setback at the hands of Mark Hunt knocked him out of the title picture. Six months later, Ngannou’s legendary knockout of Overeem rocketed him to number-one contender status, bypassing the Lewis matchup for the moment. Now Lewis is coming back from a knockout of Marcin Tybura while Ngannou looks to rebound from his disappointing championship loss to Miocic.
Despite being a professional for eight years, half of them with the UFC, Lewis remains limited. The Houston native is one of the hardest punchers in the division, second to perhaps only Ngannou, but he has been plagued by poor cardio and a susceptibility to body shots. “The Black Beast” throws bungalows with both hands in short, explosive flurries. He isn’t afraid to throw down, but Lewis definitely isn’t a brawler. In fact, when he has respected his opponents’ power, particularly Hunt and Travis Browne, he has been backed to the fence, uncomfortable getting in extended exchanges. He was able to clip Browne with a few booming counterpunches and steal a victory. Against the crafty and iron-chinned Hunt, he used sudden bursts or high-amplitude kicks to create temporary space. But he was unable to generate consistent, effective offense when the killshot failed to materialize, getting picked apart and eventually stopped.
The 4oz Fight Club rep is easily most dangerous when his opponent’s back is either on the fence or on the canvas. In those scenarios, Lewis will unload frightening combinations of skull-crushing power punches. Lewis can be held against the cage or on the ground himself, but he has so far managed to keep himself out of real danger. Tybura easily mounted him when he was able to take Lewis down, and Lewis continued his worrying habit of just giving up his back and standing up. So far, no one has been able to make him pay.
I don’t see Ngannou threatening Lewis with a rear-naked choke either. The France-based Cameroonian had his lack of experience and depth of skill exposed by Miocic, who managed to survive Ngannou’s harrowing first-round blitz. The MMA Factory product is immensely strong and used that strength to often stuff the champion’s initial takedowns. But his poor cardio and technique meant that, by Round 2, he was unable to disengage. Miocic stuck to Ngannou, chained a second takedown behind the first attempt, and usually succeeded in planting him. Or he ran Ngannou into the fence and grinded him into it. Ngannou has before displayed an ability to quickly pick up techniques, as when he first learned a kimura in the locker room before finishing Anthony Hamilton with it later that night. But any hope that he would compete with Miocic in wrestling or grappling was swiftly and completely dashed.
That shouldn’t be an issue against Lewis, who is devastating on top but not much of a wrestler. This bout will likely come down to who can land the first missile. I have to favor Ngannou in such a fight. Even if Lewis had not already demonstrated a reluctance to exchange with the division’s heaviest hitters, Ngannou’s speed and length make him a difficult adversary to navigate. Ngannou also showed off his durability in the Miocic fight, a key characteristic at heavyweight. He knocks Lewis out in the first round.
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