UFC Bantamweight Championship
Cody Garbrandt (11-0) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (14-3)ANALYSIS: Four months after we were teased with the most significant bantamweight bout in MMA history, we will finally get it, this after a Garbrandt back injury nixed the meeting of former Team Alpha Male training partners ahead of UFC 213 in July. In a just and fair prizefighting world, this would not just be a main event but a legitimate draw -- not just because of the real-life pro wrestling storyline involved but because it is perhaps the most significant 135-pound fight in MMA history and a tantalizing style match.
Though “No Love” does have extensive amateur boxing and MMA experience, he has still only been a professional cagefighter for less than four years. Owing to that and his power-punching success, we are still finding out the depth and breadth of his game. As a +180 underdog to Dominick Cruz in December, it was assumed the Ohio native’s real chance for success was in locating a massive right hand and knocking out “The Dominator.” Instead, Garbrandt found a ton of them, hammering the usually slick Cruz repeatedly for 25 minutes, dropping him twice and nearly finishing him, all while dodging his combinations and doing the robot and Ali Shuffle. Cruz has one of the most unique, idiosyncratic and hard-to-replicate styles we have ever seen in the cage, and Garbrandt shut it down immediately while himself to be every bit as slick and twice as powerful. For my money, Garbrandt’s title capture at UFC 207 is one of the greatest, start-to-finish performances in MMA history.
Cruz, of course, took that title from Dillashaw 11 months earlier via razor-thin split decision in a high-output fight in which both men combined to throw 710 significant strikes. The respective approaches of Garbrandt and Dillashaw in their encounters with Cruz encounters seem instructive here. While Dillashaw arguably won three rounds and perhaps deserved to keep the title, he chased Cruz all around the Octagon, allowing his challenger exactly the sort of free-exchanging, hyperactive fight in which he thrives. Dillashaw landed eight more total strikes than Cruz did but three fewer significant strikes, even though he threw 106 more. Dillashaw had never been taken down in his UFC career before, but Cruz suckered him in and took him down four times.
Conversely, Garbrandt applied some stalking pressure to Cruz, yet largely refused to react to his heavy feinting and trapping footwork, ignoring the window dressing that makes Cruz’s game work. He then waited to land huge counter right hands. Once Garbrandt began landing his right hand frequently and potently in Round 3, Cruz seemingly panicked. He began outright chasing his challenger, shooting takedowns far sloppier than his normal ilk and having his punch rushes ducked and dodged in Pernell Whitaker-esque fashion by Garbrandt, instantly spawning dozens of iconic gifs.
Dillashaw may be more cautious in his approach, as he was in his post-Cruz outings against Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker, but he will still be the same stance-switching, offensive-minded fighter who has traditionally not shied away from taking one to give one before sidestepping and attacking again. Garbrandt remains hittable, but his defensive lapses mostly present themselves while he throws; Dillashaw may be able to use his more diverse striking attack to catch Garbrandt slipping, but he is still tempting fate by throwing combinations at the champion and then trying to counter his counter. In addition to the more varied striking attack, Dillashaw has shown far more in the offensive grappling department than Garbrandt has in his career, but again, “No Love” has not had to dig too deeply into his bag of tricks. Cruz was the first opponent that really forced Garbrandt to do anything other than leg kick and throw two-hook combos.
Perhaps as a result of their familiarity with one another, either or both men could employ different or surprising strategies against one another, but that seems unlikely. In a fight with such high stakes -- professionally, personally and historically -- both men are likely to do what brought them to the dance. Either man being finished dramatically is well within the realm of possibility, but the most likely outcome is Garbrandt capitalizing on Dillashaw’s volume, landing the cleaner and harder punches on the counter and retaining his title in a fantastic 25-minute fight.
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