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UFC Flyweight Championship

Demetrious Johnson (26-2-1) vs. Ray Borg (11-2)

ODDS: Johnson (-1375), Borg (+900)

ANALYSIS: How does one fairly and righteously break down this fight? What is the best way to explain that Borg is an adequate UFC title challenger and great young fighter with tons of untapped potential who is destined to become the answer to a trivia question?

As I hope you have heard by now, Johnson is seeking to break former middleweight champion Anderson Silva’s promotional record of 10 straight title defenses. They are presently tied after Johnson’s humiliating third-round submission of Wilson Reis in April. We were supposed to see this fight a month ago at UFC 215 in Edmonton, Alberta, but after a build-up that centered on the fact that Borg had missed the flyweight limit twice in his last four appearances, the challenger fell ill during fight week, was deemed unfit to compete by UFC doctors and then promptly fired his nutritionist. All too often, the MMA gods seem to mock Johnson, despite his unflinching greatness. Perhaps that is fitting, as it seemingly would take the MMA gods themselves to tangle with “Mighty Mouse” right now.

As previously mentioned, Borg is a fantastic fighter. He is already a bona fide top-10 flyweight; he just turned 24 in August; he is only scratching the surface of his potential; and he is showing big improvements since hooking up with Brandon Gibson at Jackson-Wink MMA. Under Gibson, Borg has developed his footwork and head movement while becoming a more assertive combination puncher. This allows him to create the scrambles in which he truly thrives, scrambles where he can freely pound his opponents, dive into dominant position and look to finish via submission in rapid-fire fashion. In March, Borg showed all these skills in the most significant victory of his career, earning a unanimous decision over Jussier da Silva while out-scrambling a man whose takes of the back and overall back control are among the very best in all of MMA. Weight issues aside, Borg rules.

With that said, Borg faces Johnson, 31, in the prime of his career; never mind the thought that “Mighty Mouse” might not be at his apex yet. To make a case for Borg winning is difficult, beyond the freak aberration of him landing a legend-killing strike the likes of which he has ever landed before. Borg’s greatest skill, the straw that stirs the drink for his whole style, is his scrambling ability. Johnson is the best scrambler in MMA by several standard deviations. Johnson is cleaner and more precise, versatile and powerful at every striking range. Even in the rare instance he winds up getting his necked squeezed for a moment, a la Tim Elliott, he calmly escapes. An insane puncher like John Dodson belted him repeatedly for 10 minutes in their first fight before Johnson effortlessly took over the final 15. He is not the greatest, most accomplished mixed martial artist of all-time, at least not yet. However, Johnson is the most legitimate prototype we have of the “perfect” fighter.

Johnson should be able to earn his record-setting victory whatever way he wants. A win for Borg would be running neck-and-neck with Matt Serra clobbering Georges St. Pierre for the biggest MMA upset on record. Ultimately, “The Tazmexican Devil” is going to have to do what brought him to the dance and scramble. He will have to try to beat the best fighter on the planet where the king is beyond reproach. As a result, Borg ends up getting submitted in the third round.

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