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UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (13-0) vs. Jessica Andrade (16-5)

THE MATCHUP: Two years ago, no one imagined that Andrade would be fighting for a UFC title anytime soon. A win-some-lose-some bantamweight, Andrade struggled to turn her obvious athletic talent into a consistently winning style against the likes of Liz Carmouche, Marion Reneau and Raquel Pennington. Since dropping to strawweight, however, Andrade looks like a new woman. The considerable power she showed at 135 pounds is absolutely crushing at 115. Her stout frame no longer looks out of place compared to her opposition. Her physical strength makes her a credible wrestling threat, as well as a dangerous puncher; and most importantly, the weight cut does not seem to have diminished Andrade’s stamina in the slightest. Andrade plastered a freakishly durable Angela Hill for 15 minutes straight in her last fight, landing 148 of 342 strikes, and never flagged for a second.

All of this makes Andrade a seriously dangerous matchup for Jedrzejczyk, currently the best pound-for-pound female fighter on the planet and one of the UFC’s most dominant champions. Jedrzejczyk is as tough as they come and her will to win is outmatched, but she is not impossible to hurt. Claudia Gadelha surprised Jedrzejczyk with a flash knockdown in the first 10 seconds of their July 2016 rematch. That she achieved this with only a jab is some cause for worry. Karolina Kowalkiewicz spent the majority of five rounds being picked apart by Jedrzejczyk in November, but the one clean right hand she landed sent the champion stumbling into the fence, where she had to fight to survive.

Andrade is a harder puncher than either of these women and a more consistent pressure fighter, too. Comparable in style to bantamweight puncher John Lineker, Andrade is not necessarily reckless with her attacks. She likes to sit on the edge of range and slowly work her way forward. In the process, she does tend to absorb quick punches and kicks. The moment her opponent commits, however, Andrade lets loose. Comfortable punching to body and head alike with both hands, Andrade is happy to square up and shift weight back and forth, bringing powerful hooks with her as she does.

Jedrzejczyk is a fantastically skilled kickboxer. In four of her five UFC title fights, she has outstruck her opponents by a factor of three. Valerie Letourneau, who landed more strikes than any other challenger, still absorbed twice as many significant strikes as she gave. Still, defense is not a particular strength of hers. Jedrzejczyk relies heavily on her volume to force opponents out of the pocket; and while her strikes have snap, they lack the crushing power of Andrade’s punches. Jedrzejczyk’s determination to throw combinations in the pocket before breaking away may very well hurt her against a fighter who can both match her volume and outdo her power. Unlike Kowalkiewicz, Andrade will apply heavy pressure from the outset. She cannot match the wrestling attack of Gadelha, but she can take advantage of similar positions with her striking, and if her three-round fights are any indication, she will not gas as dramatically as the Nova Uniao standout did.

The clinch may be Jedrzejczyk’s saving grace. She is exceedingly dangerous with short elbows in close range. While these usually serve as a takedown deterrent, the champion would be well-served to aggressively press the clinch whenever Andrade closes the gap. Andrade will not be easy to control because of her great physical strength, but Jedrzejczyk is undeniably the more technical clinch fighter. Though Andrade’s wrestling has shown up in her strawweight career and she is a capable top-position grappler, she will struggle to take and keep the champ down. Jedrzejczyk’s takedown defense is phenomenal, and the damage she does in the clinch is enough to convince even the most capable wrestler to back off.

THE ODDS: Jedrzejczyk (-165), Andrade (+140)

THE PICK: Jedrzejczyk dominates her opposition chiefly because of output and stamina. She can be hit, but she stays sharp and dishes out punishment at such a consistent rate that most opponents crumble. Those who do not fold survive to lose a lopsided decision. Andrade is different. She attacks intelligently, picking her targets and setting up her combinations, but she is also relentless. Given Jedrzejczyk’s accuracy and grit, Andrade will likely take more damage in this fight than she has in any other, but so will Jedrzejczyk; and unless Andrade slows down badly in the championship rounds, the deficit may be too much for the champ to overcome. The pick is Andrade by unanimous decision.

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