Preview: UFC 210 ‘Cormier vs. Johnson 2’

Middleweights

Chris Weidman (13-2) vs. Gegard Mousasi (41-6-2)

THE MATCHUP: Less than two years ago, Weidman was a UFC middleweight champion with two successful title defenses under his very shiny belt. Now, on the back of two straight knockout losses, he finds himself struggling back toward contention. While it may not have been kind to the “All-American,” 2016 was a banner year for Mousasi. He won four straight last year, the last three being dominant knockouts. While it is true that Mousasi has not faced the sort of competition that put Weidman on a skid, no one can argue that momentum is not on his side.

Mousasi has to be one of the most far-traveled and experienced fighters in middleweight history. From Berlin to Tokyo, from Mark Hunt to Vitor Belfort, it seems that Mousasi has been everywhere and fought everyone. He recently announced himself as a bona fide UFC contender. The four-fight streak is impressive in its own right, but Mousasi’s methods have been even more remarkable. Mousasi seemed too content to coast when he first came to the UFC. As always, he beat those he was supposed to beat but struggled against the elite. His improved wrestling made him a more well-rounded threat than ever before, but Mousasi was still strangely unthreatening to the best fighters in the division. That is no longer the case. Mousasi has learned to be aggressive and seize victory rather than waiting for it to arrive. Always more dangerous on the ground than on the feet, Mousasi has begun to pressure his opponents and throw more combinations, smashing away with surprisingly powerful strikes at every opportunity. Despite the newfound aggression, Mousasi remains disciplined and defensively responsible; and his chin is still unbelievably solid.

Weidman’s chin, impressive in its own right, is still solid. In fact, I am willing to say that durability is not the reason for Weidman’s two knockout losses. Rather, Weidman’s entire game has failed to develop as it should. A pressure fighter by nature, he is quite effective when he can control distance and deliberately press forward. Pressured in return, however, or denied the chance to apply pressure of his own, Weidman’s kickboxing looks decidedly average. The weight of Weidman’s hands matters little when he is being pushed backward, because he usually chooses to simply cover up with both hands. The clean footwork that makes Weidman such a good cage-cutter seems to vanish when he is pressed, as he retreats in straight lines, hoping to outrun his opponents in reverse; however, most opponents are significantly fleeter of foot than the plodding former champion. On the whole, Weidman’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, and training with Mark Henry has yet to turn him into a markedly better boxer.

Weidman will need to outwrestle Mousasi if he hopes to beat him. Mousasi is an underrated wrestler, but he has been taken down by larger, stronger and more technical grapplers, most notably Ronaldo Souza, who scored four takedowns before submitting him in 2014. To get his arms around Mousasi’s hips, however, Weidman will need to apply heavy pressure. Souza had the benefit of a small Octagon when he fought Mousasi, whereas “The Dreamcatcher” will have 750 square feet at his disposal against Weidman. If Mousasi chooses to pressure, he may expose himself to reactive takedowns, but he may also tire out the larger fighter and do enough damage to negate whatever takedowns do materialize. On the ground, Mousasi is good enough to threaten all but the very best submission artists when given time.

THE ODDS: Mousasi (-118), Weidman (-102)

THE PICK: Weidman did not look lost in his most recent fight, a tilt with Yoel Romero that ended suddenly in the third round. Then again, he struggled to pressure the more mobile opponent, especially because his wrestling was effectively neutralized. Mousasi cannot hope to shuck off Weidman’s takedowns as easily as Romero did, but he is also less concerned with his gas tank and more comfortable in the pocket. Mousasi will most likely alternate between periods of control, working off of his excellent jab and pot-shotting Weidman as he attempts to pressure, and periods of aggression. If he can press Weidman into the fence and keep him there for any significant period of time, the fight will only become easier with each passing minute. Mousasi by unanimous decision is the pick.

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