Preview: UFC 208 ‘Holm vs. de Randamie’

Middleweights

Derek Brunson (16-4) vs. Anderson Silva (33-8)

THE MATCHUP: It must hurt a great number of MMA fans to see Silva, formerly one of the most dominant champions in the entire sport, struggling under the combined weight of old age and wear. Between 2006 and 2012, Silva was undefeated for 17 straight fights; now he is winless in his last five, his iron chin rusting along with his gas tank and his ability to pull the trigger lessening with every fight.

Brunson is certainly not shy about pulling the trigger. Indeed, his problem is diametrically opposed to that of “The Spider.” Where Silva is reluctant to throw for fear of gassing or getting himself countered, Brunson strikes as if the notion of counters never even occurred to him. His maniacal swarming came back to bite him last time out in the form of Robert Whittaker’s heavy right hand. Brunson’s hittability is always a liability, but it could be especially so against one of the best counterpunchers of all-time.

However, just as Brunson is vulnerable to the Brazilian’s striking, Silva will be vulnerable to his wrestling. Silva has a credible 68 percent takedown defense rate, but his era of challengers did not exactly consist of excellent takedown artists. When such takedown artists did appear -- Chael Sonnen and Chris Weidman stand out -- Silva was taken down nearly at will, except for when he got a good grip on Sonnen’s shorts in their rematch. Daniel Cormier was able to take him down repeatedly in his last bout. Brunson may not stack up to those names in terms of pure wrestling skill, but he is an absolutely relentless takedown artist nonetheless, shooting about 10 times every 15 minutes.

On the surface, this would appear to be a classic striker versus grappler matchup, but there are a few wrinkles. Silva can grapple, of course. When he wants to, he has a dangerous guard, and he has always been a fantastic top player, especially with his piston-like ground-and-pound. Often, however, Silva will content himself with preventing damage on the ground. Fans were quick to criticize Cormier for failing to finish Silva at UFC 200, but few noticed the way the former middleweight champion locked down Cormier’s legs in half guard and kept him from posturing up or advancing position. On the other hand, Brunson is not merely a grappler. Before his loss to Whittaker, Brunson had knocked out four opponents in a row, all in the first round. He gets wild and sticks his chin in the air, but when he cares to, he is a precise and dangerous kickboxer.

THE ODDS: Brunson (-150), Silva (+130)

THE PICK: Silva wants to keep fighting, and I support his desire to do so. The symptoms of decline which started to appear nearly seven years ago, however, are only becoming more pronounced with time. Where once he ate H-bombs like candy, he now gets floored by Michael Bisping. Where once he tore through Forrest Griffin with aplomb, he now holds back and conserves his energy for that one perfect shot. Such a shot could very well materialize, especially if Brunson brushes off his most recent knockout loss as a mere fluke. More likely, however, Brunson’s willingness to throw will make him the more dangerous man on the feet, and his top-notch wrestling will allow him to control the direction of the fight. “The Spider” will have his opportunities, but he simply does not jump on them the way he once did. Brunson by second-round TKO is the pick.

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