Welterweights
Donald Cerrone (31-7) vs. Matt Brown (20-15)
Brown’s relationship with his top 10 ranking was always a shaky one. His recoverability has never been questioned, but we saw Brown rely on it a few too many times to really believe in him as a title contender, even if he was competitive with the former champion Robbie Lawler. Putting aside his flaws and his record, however, Brown is always exceptionally dangerous. Sure, he has lost to some very good fighters and more than a few faded ones, but he has also staggered Lawler, choked out Tim Means and smashed the likes of Erick Silva, Mike Pyle and Jordan Mein to bits with his awkward, heavy fists.
Cerrone’s recent improvements have come in two of MMA’s most essential realms: boxing and wrestling. Footwork has been a big part of Cerrone’s welterweight run. In his last three fights, he showed off excellent pivots, sidesteps and shifts -- all fundamental skills that for “Cowboy” went largely undeveloped until about 2014. With better footwork comes more opportunities, and Cerrone’s increased focus on combination punching has enabled him to take advantage of more and more openings. All of these striking improvements are intrinsically tied to Cerrone’s wrestling, which, while always underrated, was never utilized frequently until recently. “Cowboy” took down every one of his three welterweight opponents quite early into their respective fights, effectively setting the tone for the matchup and creating a helpful foil for his potent kickboxing.
Brown is an underrated wrestler, too, but he can be taken down, and Cerrone has the timing to pull it off. Brown is a solid submission grappler, but he will want to avoid tangling with Cerrone at all costs: He has been submitted 10 times, while Cerrone has 16 submission wins to his credit. Whether Brown ends up on the ground or not, the burden will be on him to press the action all night, as Cerrone is known to be a slow-starter and Brown is notoriously dependent on pressuring to get the win.
THE ODDS: Cerrone (-275), Brown (+230)
THE PICK: For one round, this could look like a pick-’em fight. Brown usually comes roaring out of the gate, and his confidence builds over the course of the first round, often after absorbing some damage from his opponent in the process. Cerrone is susceptible to this style of fighting, and most of his losses can be attributed in some way to an opponent’s early onslaught. Cerrone is stalwart, though, and has a number of comeback wins on his resume. He is also the more flexible fighter, capable of performing well whether moving backwards or forwards, standing or on the ground. The pick is Cerrone by second-round submission.
Next Fight » Swanson vs. Choi