Can Gilbert Melendez rebound from the first submission loss of his career? | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Gilbert Melendez (22-4, 1-2 UFC) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-4, 0-1 UFC)From a skills perspective, Melendez can do it all. He is an excellent striker with great footwork, outstanding awareness of where he is in the cage and clean fundamentals, which show up most clearly in the way he turns over his hip and gets great weight transfer into his shots. His balance and efficient mechanics allow him to string together long combinations and to work at a punishing pace without fear of gassing. He is comfortable both leading and countering in the pocket, and he has a special gift for sneaking in hard punches and knees in transition. Melendez is not a grinder by nature, but he is happy to push his opponent up against the cage for a while, wear him down and then separate with a long punching combination before looking for a takedown chain. From top position, he generates tremendous force in his ground strikes but rarely looks for passes or submissions.
Alvarez is primarily a boxer -- and a talented one. He circles constantly, flicking a crisp jab or a darting right hand as he moves at range, and then picks his spots to commit to vicious head-body combinations. The right uppercut and left hook are his money punches, and he packs real power in his hands. He is generally sound defensively, but his willingness to operate in the pocket means that he is frequently there to be hit, and multiple opponents have succeeded in dropping him to the canvas. Originally a wrestler, Alvarez still excels at stuffing takedowns, and his constant movement makes it quite difficult to get a clean angle at his hips. He can hit the occasional single or double of his own, and he excels at setting up his shots with strikes and landing strikes off failed shots. Clinch fighting is not his specialty, but he is a solid dirty boxer. On the mat, he is fairly workmanlike, with good control and hard shots from top position, but he has a bad habit of giving up his back as he gets back to his feet.
THE PICK: This should be a proper donnybrook. Both fighters will likely be willing to engage on the feet and have the takedown defense to keep it there; both like to throw hands; and both are perfectly happy to exchange in the pocket. In that scenario, I favor Melendez, though not by much: He is a little cleaner defensively, more durable and has more ancillary tools. The pick is Melendez by tight decision.
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