While many will contend that this is MMA and with four-ounce gloves anything can happen, it most likely won’t in the Hioki-Manuel bout. Not only will Hioki be able to handle whatever Manuel throws at him on the feet, Manuel’s penchant to bring the fight in close to the clinch for the eventual takedown attempt will be all but nullified. If the fight goes to the floor, it’ll likely be on Hioki’s terms.
Hioki is Japan’s best MMA grappler at featherweight. Baret Yoshida, long respected as one of the featherweight division’s slickest and most accomplished grapplers, was thoroughly outmaneuvered and crushed on the canvas by Hioki in Shooto last March, ending Yoshida’s short-lived return to MMA. Manuel should thus prove no stiffer a test on the mat for the heavier and taller Hioki, who will use his physical advantages in concert with his superlative technical abilities to further drive the point home that the Sengoku tournament is nothing more than his coming-out party.
Provided that Hioki doesn’t resort to stubbornly playing his opponent’s game, as he has been known to do in past fights, things should go swimmingly in this first-round tourney bout for the Nagoya native. Look for Hioki to dominate on the mat, giving the WEC veteran his first defeat en route to taking a unanimous decision to glide on into the second round of the tournament.
Hideki Kadowaki vs. Nam Phan
While Strikeforce veteran Nam Phan hasn’t done particularly well against the top-tier fighters he’s faced, it should be noted that he faced all of them at 155. Not only is Hideki Kadowaki not in the same league as the likes of Gesias "JZ" Cavalcante and Josh Thomson, but as a career 143-pounder in Shooto, Kadowaki is already going to find himself struggling with the heavier Phan on the ground.
Further adding to Phan’s advantage is that on the feet at least, Kadowaki will not attempt to steamroll him with big punches. While Kadowaki has found success with his newly discovered jab, the boxer in Phan should be able to navigate around it to land the bigger shots.
Even in Kadowaki’s own territory on the ground, the former 143-pound Shooto champion poses little threat to the bigger Phan. Never finished by way of submission in his career of 19 fights, Phan will not fall prey to the trademark Kadowaki Special. He’ll slip out of submission attempts to maintain dominant position, where he will grind out a workmanlike unanimous decision to advance to the next round.
Michihiro Omigawa vs. L.C. Davis
In one of the more curiously booked tournament bouts on the card, UFC veteran Michihiro Omigawa will find a stiff test in Affliction and IFL veteran L.C. Davis.
“Curious” in that outside of being Omigawa’s management agency and a corporate partner of World Victory Road, J-Rock also serves as the promotion’s matchmaker. Rather than tossing their man Omigawa a softball for an easy promotional boost in the tourney’s opening round, it seems as if J-Rock would rather he endure a trial by fire against the ever-impressive Davis. Refreshing in the challenge it presents to Omigawa as well as their faith in him, the logic behind the booking may be that a win over Davis would be a significant first step for the former 155-pounder’s fresh start as a featherweight.
The problem, however, is that it probably won’t happen. While Omigawa can neither be faulted for his tenacity or for his solid chin, his in-ring performances don’t particularly paint him as a standout talent. His liabilities lie in his power and his susceptibility to eat punches, which should prove little problem for Davis to take advantage of. Omigawa’s defensive holes coupled with his inability to land the knockout punch will allow Davis to accumulate the better shots on the feet and on the ground en route to outworking Omigawa in the grappling department.
Nevertheless, Omigawa-Davis should prove an exciting, back-and-forth tussle before Davis takes over to push the pace and impose his game in rounds two and three. While Omigawa will be more than game to engage Davis on the feet before the ensuing scramble to the mat, expect the judoka to use the clinch and takedown attempts to try to slow the fight down and reassert his own game after round one. It won’t work, as the Miletich product will take Omigawa down and keep him there for an extensive ground-and-pound beating en route to a solid unanimous decision.
Marlon Sandro vs. Matt Jaggers
Undefeated and current featherweight King of Pancrase Marlon Sandro will step into the first round of the Sengoku tournament across from Matt Jaggers, former King of the Cage “super lightweight” and bantamweight champion. While Sandro’s record doesn’t reflect many finishes, that doesn’t mean the top Nova Uniao prospect is incapable of them.
Look for Sandro to work slick combinations on the feet between delivering punishing low kicks. He’ll rack up the points before stunning Jaggers to send him to the canvas. Once there, expect Sandro to work a superior top game, grinding Jaggers up for a TKO stoppage in the second round.