Dream 8 Breakdown

Dream Welterweight Grand Prix
Shinya Aoki vs. Hayato Sakurai

The Storyline: When was the last time Aoki (20-3, 1 NC) lost outside of a tournament format? It happened in August 2005, and Sakurai was the opponent. In their first encounter, “Mach” did a good job staying on top of Aoki, scoring with big punches and avoiding any dangerous submission attempts. He also proved to be the far more capable fighter standing up. In the end, a unanimous decision loss saw Aoki crumble to the canvas in tears. Can he get revenge three and a half years later?

The Breakdown: While Aoki has done little to improve his striking since they met, he has become a more polished finisher with his submissions. Armbars, chokes and heel hooks -- Aoki knows them all. At the same time, Sakurai (34-8-2) appeared satiated by a few good paydays in recent years and has not challenged himself or maximized his ability. He has also put a focus on striking, turning many of his bouts into kickboxing matches.

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The Prediction: Dream 8 may mark the day in history when both fighters’ performance curves intersected at a point, which should allow Aoki to avenge one of his three career losses. Sakurai looked uninspired against Hidehiko Hasegawa and Kuniyoshi Hironaka and lost to the decent but unspectacular David Baron. After three rounds of action, Aoki’s hand will be raised this time.